The main shock of Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment

Market focus: (1) In the first quarter, the total import and export value of China's trade in goods was 6.
57 trillion yuan, down 6.
4% from the same period last year, higher than market expectations, of which exports were 3.
33 trillion yuan, down 11.
4%; Imports were 3.
24 trillion yuan, down 0.
7%.

Spot analysis: On April 14, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 11790-11830 yuan / ton, with an average price of 11810 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton
per day.
Due to the price increase, the carrier shipped actively before the afternoon, the middleman was more willing to receive the goods, and the two sides traded well
.
Downstream intraday on-demand goods are mainly taken, and the signs of replenishment are not obvious
.
The overall transaction in East China was acceptable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 299745 tons on Tuesday, an increase of 8,015 tons per day; On April 9, LME aluminum stocks were 1,239,700 tons, an increase of 12,250 tons per day, an increase of 4 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2006 contract are 90249 lots, a daily increase of 1491 lots, short positions 108858 lots, a daily decrease of 106 lots, a net short position of 18609 lots, a daily decrease of 1597 lots, more increase and short, a decrease
in net space.

At present, aluminum prices are still below the cost line, electrolytic aluminum plants are in a state of comprehensive losses, resulting in increased production reduction and shutdown scale, coupled with the recovery of downstream processing plant production, demand recovery has made Shanghai aluminum inventories enter a downward channel, and the support below aluminum prices has strengthened
.
However, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy continues, overseas orders have declined significantly, and downstream demand is still difficult to say optimistic; In addition, the recovery of alumina production has further weakened prices, and the weakening of cost support, which will also reduce the production reduction expectations of aluminum plants and limit the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, due to the price increase, the carrier shipped actively before the afternoon, the middleman was more willing to receive the goods, the two sides traded well, and the downstream intraday on-demand goods were mainly taken, and the signs of replenishment were not obvious
.
Technically, the trading volume of Shanghai's main 2006 contract continued to shrink, and the mainstream short positions increased slightly, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.