The main shock of Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, and it is expected that the short-term low level adjustment

Market Focus: (1) Yellen will reaffirm her commitment to the market-determined exchange rate at Tuesday's hearing, while Yellen will also make it clear that the United States will not seek a weak dollar to gain a competitive advantage
.
(2) As of January 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China's main market was 689,000 tons, down 06,000 tons
from January 14.

Spot analysis: On January 18, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15040-15080 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15060 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 120 yuan / ton
.
Cargo holders are shipping at high prices, the enthusiasm for receiving goods is reduced, the downstream just needs to be less mining, and the transaction activity is average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 90,507 tons, an increase of 2,716 tons per day; On January 15, LME aluminum stocks were 1288675 tons, an increase of 3,550 tons
per day.
As of the week of January 15, the previous Shanghai aluminum inventory was reported at 82,342 tons, down 4,337 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum are 84198 lots, an increase of 2508 lots per day, 102368 short positions, a daily increase of 2046 lots, a net short position of 18170 lots, a daily decrease of 462 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreases
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2103 opened low and rebounded
on January 18.
The US economy is expected to grow by 6.
6% this year, boosting the US dollar index
.
At the end of the year, downstream demand turned weak and natural gas supply restrictions and other reasons, resulting in some aluminum companies stopping production, domestic inventories entered the accumulation cycle, and aluminum prices performed weakly
.
However, the continuous deteriorating of aluminum inventories and the closure of the import arbitrage window will inhibit the inflow of overseas goods, and the market transaction has improved slightly after the decline in aluminum prices, which is conducive to the stabilization
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased slightly, paying attention to the pressure of the 10-day moving average, and it is expected to adjust
the short-term low.