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On Thursday, the main 2102 contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded, with the highest 15460 yuan / ton and the lowest 15160 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 15320 yuan / ton, down 0.
52% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME aluminum rebounded slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2042.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
59%
per day.
Market focus: (1) ADP employment in the United States fell by 123,000 in December, the first negative value since April 2020, and is expected to increase by 75,000 compared with an increase of 307,000
in the previous month.
(2) According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, vehicle sales in December 2020 are expected to reach 2.
802 million units, up 1.
2% m/m and 5.
4%
y/y.
Spot analysis: On January 7, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15520-15560 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15540 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that there are many sources of circulating goods, it is difficult for holders to ship, the overall demand has weakened, and the transaction activity has declined
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 64,778 tons on Thursday, unchanged; On January 6, LME aluminum stocks were 1319075 tons, a daily decrease of 5,425 tons, a drop of 9 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2102 contract are 64012 lots, a daily increase of 830 lots, a short position of 77091 lots, a daily decrease of 2193 lots, a net short position of 13079 lots, a daily decrease of 3023 lots, more increase and a decrease in short, and a decrease
in net space.
Market research and judgment: On January 7, Shanghai aluminum 2102 rebounded
.
The risk of the global epidemic continuing to worsen into winter has increased, and the poor performance of ADP data in the United States has weighed on market risk sentiment; However, the dollar index continued to be weak
in anticipation of the US maintaining accommodative monetary policy.
The high production profits of aluminum enterprises will stimulate the accelerated launch of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and put long-term pressure
on aluminum prices.
The polluted weather in the north has caused some aluminum companies to stop production and limit production, and downstream demand has weakened, but aluminum prices have recently fallen to a low level, market procurement has picked up, coupled with the continuous inflow of overseas supplies, the inventory of the two cities continues to deteriorate, supporting the stabilization
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the mainstream position of the main 2102 contract of Shanghai aluminum has increased and reduced the short, focusing on the support of the 15200 position, and it is expected that the short-term stable operation will occur
.
