The main force of Shanghai aluminum rebounded at a low level, and short-term volatility is expected to be strong

Market focus: China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.
8, better than expected at 49.
6 and 49.
5 in the previous month, rising
for two consecutive months.
One week after the National Day, China and the United States will hold the 13th round of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultations
in Washington, D.
C.
The US non-farm payrolls report for September will be released on Friday, and the market expects an increase of 140,000, slightly higher than the previous month's 130,000.

The AI Taweelah smelter, owned by Emirates Global Aluminium, has produced 600,000 tonnes of alumina since it opened in April and is expected to reach 2 million tonnes at full capacity within the year
.

Spot analysis: On September 30, the spot A00 aluminum quotation was 13960-14000 yuan / ton, the average price was 13980 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton
per day.
The first stage of aluminum changes are large, the first phase of trading between traders is acceptable, the second trading stage turned flat, the last spot trading day of this month, and close to the National Day holiday, some traders consider the end of the month of the closing settlement and holiday rest, the intermediary transaction enthusiasm is not high
.
In addition, due to pre-holiday stocking, there is also a small amount of downstream stocking
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 101369 tons, a daily decrease of 1592 tons; On September 27, LME aluminum stocks were 914725 tons, an increase of 4,150 tons per day, an increase of 4 consecutive days
.
As of the week ended September 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory was 318988 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,058 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 1912 contract were 65580 lots, a daily increase of 1672 lots, short positions were 84442 lots, a daily increase of 1103 lots, a net short position of 18862 lots, a daily decrease of 569 lots, long and short increased, and net space decreased
.

Market research and judgment: On September 30, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 1912 rebounded
at a low level.
The US economic data is strong, the market confidence in the US economy has increased, the US dollar is strong, coupled with the poor performance of downstream demand, and the year-end electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to be released, aluminum prices are under overall pressure, and the current electrolytic aluminum production is still at a low level, electrolytic aluminum inventories continue to degrade, and China's economic data is better than expected, forming some support
for aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, on the last spot trading day of this month, and close to the National Day holiday, the enthusiasm of middlemen to trade is not high, in addition, due to pre-holiday stocking, there is also a small amount of downstream stocking
.
Technically, the main 1912 contract of Shanghai aluminum daily KDJ low golden cross, pay attention to the 13800 position support, is expected to be strong short-term volatility
.
Operationally, the market
is closed.