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In August, the domestic TDI market bottomed out and the price rose by about 1,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the profit margin of production enterprises increase.
Fundamentals remain positive
Fundamentals are still improving Fundamentals are still improvingAccording to Meng Xianxing, deputy director of the Shandong Institute of Chemical Industry, the current domestic TDI market is constantly fermenting, and the middlemen may settle losses at the end of the month, and the quotations will continue to ris.
In terms of device operation, the operating rate of the TDI industry remained at 72.
From the external perspective, the Hungarian TDI plant in Europe was shut down for maintenance, and the operation of Covestro and BASF’s plants was unstable; the 50,000-ton/year plant of India’s GNFC did not start smoothly on August 10, and it was postponed to August 1 ech.
Regarding the market outlook, Meng Xianxing analyzed that the Wanhua Yantai TDI unit is scheduled to undergo routine maintenance in October, and the supply side is expected to decreas.
Weak shock of raw materials
Weak shock of raw materials Weak shock of raw materialsFrom the perspective of raw materials, the toluene market fluctuated and weakened, and TDI cost support was limite.
Although the demand for gasoline blending has increased, the export level of production enterprises has generally been relatively high recently, and some refineries are still studying the export of toluene, which has increased market pressur.
"The market for naphtha, the upstream raw material of toluene, is weak as a whole, and the demand for gasoline is not performing wel.
The international toluene market also showed weak shock.
As the price of raw material toluene fell, TDI's profit margins increase.
"The fundamentals are still weak, and the external news is bearish, which puts pressure on the toluene market, and the price is expected to be lowered in the futur.
Demand causes drag
Demand causes drag Demand causes dragFrom the perspective of the polyurethane industry chain, the overall presentation is "hot on the top and cold on the bottom.
From the point of view of soft foam polyether, the market first fell and then ros.
Looking at the market outlook, the big soft-foam polyether manufacturers still have the willingness to support the market, the big manufacturers in the north have tried to push up, and the spot market continues to move up at low prices, but there is not much feedback on the high-priced real market, and the north is even more dul.
In particular, the terminal demand has not improve.
In addition, the overall demand for terminal sponges has not been activated for a long time, and orders have not improved significantl.
In addition, data from the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in July was 54%, an increase of 1 percentage points year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 9 percentage point.
In terms of sub-indices, the inventory, demand, and average daily sales indexes in July fell month-on-month, which dragged upstream raw materials and made it difficult to bring strong support to the TDI marke.
