TDI market bottoming out or coming to an end

Entering May, the decline of the TDI market slowed down, with a drop of only 100 yuan (ton price, the same below) during the week.

Prices continue to fall

Meng Xianxing, vice president of Shandong Research Institute of Chemical Industry, said that since the second quarter, the TDI market has continued to decline, with a decline of 1,500 yuan in April and 1,000 yuan in May.

Judging from the current operating rate of the industry, the Yantai Wanhua and Cangzhou Dahua devices are operating smoothly, and the Gansu Yinguang device is operating normally, and the operating rate of the above devices is 80%; Yantai Juli’s “3+5” 10,000-ton device is expected to shut down Restart at the end of the month; Xinjiang Juli plant is operating normally, Wanhua Fujian has no restart plan for the time being; Shanghai Covestro’s plant will be shut down on May 20 and is expected to last for one week; Shanghai BASF plant will be shut down for maintenance on May 17 and is expected to last for one month ; Even the petrochemical plant has also been shut down.

In addition, BASF in Europe shut down in mid-March and restarted in mid-June; two production lines in the 150,000-ton/year TDI plant of Hanwha in South Korea were shut down for maintenance from May 24 to June 9.

According to industry insiders, with the decline in TDI prices, the profits of manufacturers have narrowed to less than 1,100 yuan, which is at a low point in the first half of the year.

Cost support is still there

Wang Quanping, chief engineer of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group, analyzed the market situation of the upstream raw material toluene.

However, industry insiders said that as the United States and Iran have made significant progress in negotiating a return to the Iranian nuclear agreement, the supply of crude oil is expected to increase.

　　From the perspective of the market outlook, domestic manufacturers of benzene and benzene have started to increase, demand-side support is acceptable, and the overall Hong Kong stock is relatively low.

　　Demand constrains the market

　　Demand is always the most important factor restricting the TDI market.

　　Last year, my country's TDI exports ushered in explosive growth, from 139,000 tons in 2019 to 256,000 tons, an increase of 84.

　　According to Meng Xianxing, from the perspective of domestic demand, it is difficult to straighten out the supply and demand of TDI, and the procurement has not been able to increase the volume.

　　In the downstream polyether field, Hangjin Technology's 170,000-ton/year plant plans to shut down for maintenance in late May, and it is expected to resume production in 5-6 days.

　　From the perspective of the market outlook, soft foam polyether traders still maintain a wait-and-see bearish attitude, with weak downstream demand and low inventories, and some maintain a small amount of just need to cover their positions.