Copper prices maintain a strong trend of volatility in the short term

On the macro front, the IMF has once again lowered its global GDP growth forecast for next year, expecting global GDP growth to slow to 3.
2% this year from 6.
0% in 2021 and further to 2.
7%
in 2023.
On Thursday evening, the latest inflation data in the United States exceeded market expectations, and the United States announced that the CPI in September was the focus of financial markets, and the CPI rose 8.
2% in September, down 0.
1 percentage points
from the previous month.

On the supply side, overseas copper mine production has declined one after another, and major copper mine strikes in Peru and Chile have been disrupted uninterrupted, resulting in continuous production
reductions.
Among them, Chile will permanently close the mining area
connected to the giant sinkhole.
Separately, the LME released a discussion paper last week formally beginning discussions on whether Russian metals should be banned from trading and storing
in its systems.
Russia supplied nearly 292,000 tonnes of copper to the EU in 2021, with total EU copper imports exceeding 801,000 tonnes
last year.
Many European consumers are now reluctant to buy Russian metals, so they have to look for other sources, leaving the copper market currently tight
.

On the demand side, the copper pipe operating rate fell by 4.
73 percentage points month-on-month, and the consumption of real estate and its later home appliances still showed a weakening trend, but as China entered the peak season of silver ten traditional construction and the country's continuous stimulus policies, real estate demand may pick up
.
At the same time, the domestic vigorous development of infrastructure investment, and the bright production and sales data of new energy vehicles, all provide support
for copper consumption.
Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to September reached 4.
711 million units and 4.
567 million units, respectively, accounting for an increasing proportion of national automobile production and sales, and the market share reached 23.
5%.

In terms of stocks, on October 13, copper in the previous period increased by 4,425 tons to 14,093 tons
.
LME copper stocks fell 125t to 145,400t, up 1,625t from the beginning of
the week.

To sum up, the macro is short, the supply-side disturbance is frequent and European consumers are reluctant to buy Russian copper, the supply side has support, but the overall economic growth is slow and the demand is limited
.
It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong trend of volatility in the short term
.