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On Monday, the Shanghai copper main 1806 contract opened at 51540 yuan / ton in the morning, and the bulls entered the market one after another at the beginning of the session, pulling up copper prices upward across the daily moving average, and bears backed down
.
After touching the height of 51940 yuan / ton, some bears reduced their positions, the rally closed, and the oscillation ran
along the 51880 yuan / ton line.
At the end of the morning session, the bears reduced their positions in a wave, and the bulls followed, boosting copper prices to 52,050 yuan / ton
.
In the afternoon, as the bulls took profits, copper prices fell back and tested down at 51840 yuan / ton to stop the decline
.
After the center of gravity moved up, running along the 51890 yuan / ton shock, the bulls reduced their positions in the late session, and copper prices fell slightly, closing at 51860 yuan / ton, up 460 yuan / ton
.
In terms of external trading, London copper opened at 6978 US dollars / ton, the beginning of the session along the 6978 US dollars / ton a line of shock operation, after the Asian market opened, domestic black led the nonferrous upward, LME metal followed, London copper jumped over the 7000 US dollars / ton mark, a short stay at 7020 US dollars / ton and rushed to the intraday high of 7040.
5 US dollars / ton, showing a stepwise upward trend
.
In the afternoon, the upward momentum was insufficient, and after a short consolidation, the center of gravity shifted down, returning to the 7020 US dollars / ton first-line shock operation
.
In terms of the market, Shanghai copper rose, up nearly 500 yuan / ton, the morning market quotation is still at the premium 290-330 yuan / ton quotation level, but the transaction is weak, so some holders take the lead in opening the price adjustment mode, and strive to achieve exchange cash, good copper to 300 yuan / ton, flat water copper in the premium of about 270 yuan / ton, the transaction gradually unfolded
.
In the second trading session, the market continued to rise, the market performance was cautious, the holders again lowered the flat water copper quotation premium of 260 yuan / ton, the transaction did not change significantly, wet copper was dragged down by the low price of Indian copper down to about 220 yuan / ton
.
After eleven o'clock, the plate rushed up to 51700~51800 yuan / ton, the buying interest was further reduced, the premium was adjusted to 250~290 yuan / ton, under the market stalemate, the quotation was not as enthusiastic as the morning market, and the number of people who stopped increased
.
There are many shippers in the intraday market, and it is difficult to attract trade speculators due to the continued high premium, and the downstream performance is even weaker, with few deliveries, and the characteristics of abundant supply are again prominent
.
Near the end of the month, the market has begun to show the next monthly ticket quotation, the next month ticket good copper quotation discount 40 ~ 20 yuan / ton, flat water copper discount 70 ~ 50 yuan / ton, wet copper discount 100 ~ 80 yuan / ton, the next month ticket quotation will gradually increase after the week, pay attention to the price difference between the current monthly ticket and the next monthly pass
.
In the afternoon session, copper prices fluctuated at a high level, and market caution remained, and it was difficult to trade
.
In terms of stocks, copper stocks in the COMEX period were 238217 short as of April 19, down 58 tons from the previous day; As of April 20, LME copper stocks were 353375 tonnes, down 1,775 tonnes from the previous day; As of April 23, the Shanghai Stock Exchange futures inventory was 137,520 tons, down 3,333 tons
from the previous day.
Industry news, according to foreign news on April 20, Chile's National Copper Commission (Cochilco) said that it maintained the 2018 copper price forecast at $3.
06 per pound, and the 2019 copper price expectation remained at $3.
11 per pound
.
In addition, Chile's National Copper Commission expects Chile to produce 5.
76 million tonnes of copper this year, slightly higher than previously expected, and copper production this year is expected to increase by 4.
3%
compared with 2017.
Chilean copper commissioner Cochilco predicts Chile will produce 5.
76 million tonnes of copper in 2018, up 4.
3 percent from 2017, when copper prices are estimated at $3.
06 per pound
.
Cochilco said Chile's copper production will jump to 5.
94 million mt in 2019, helped by increased
production from different copper mines.
The recent ups and downs in the macro situation and the volatility of market sentiment have had a greater
impact on commodity prices.
From a fundamental point of view, domestic inventories continued to decline significantly, and spot stocks maintained a high premium, reflecting the gradual improvement of downstream demand and supporting copper futures prices
.
There are many uncertainties in the subsequent trade war, market caution is pervasive, and copper prices may maintain a strong trend in the short term
.
FYI
.
