Caprolactam prices continue to refresh new lows during the year

Since mid-July, the domestic caprolactam market has continued to decline, and the price has continuously refreshed new lows during the year

From the perspective of the market outlook, the supply is sufficient, the cost is collapsed, and the demand is off-season.

Prices are falling

At the beginning of July, the price of caprolactam was still around 14,000 yuan.

"This decline is mainly due to the restart of the Lunan and Tianchen plants after the overhaul, and the generally high operating rate of the northern factories, and the overall supply of caprolactam is abundant

At the same time, the loss of caprolactam industry intensified, which continued to exceed 2,000 yuan

The caprolactam plant changed more in the later period

Zhuang Xiaohua believes that the late supply of caprolactam determines the market trend

Weakening of cost support

Zhou Dongchao, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, believes that another factor that causes the caprolactam market price to drop to freezing point is that the raw material pure benzene market is sluggish, and the cost support of caprolactam is weakened

Since the end of July, the pure benzene market has continuously fluctuated and fell

Although the pure benzene market fell sharply, only aniline remained profitable downstream

Due to the continuous loss, the maintenance plan of downstream devices has gradually increased, which has increased the upward pressure on the pure benzene market

In addition, with the opening of the import arbitrage window, the import volume of pure benzene in East China increased, and the US dollar contract that was extended in the first half of the year began to be implemented

"Insufficient downstream demand for pure benzene, coupled with the increase in imported goods, predictably increase the inventory of East China ports, which weakens the momentum of the pure benzene market

The contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to resolve

In the domestic caprolactam downstream consumption structure, nylon 6 fiber accounts for more than 70% of caprolactam consumption, nylon 6 engineering plastics account for 18%, and other fields account for 9%

Zhou Dongchao analyzed that, judging from the comparison of caprolactam and nylon 6 production and demand, the current supply of caprolactam is still sufficient, and the downstream polymerization plant's own slice sales are slow, and the inventory reduction is slow

From the perspective of the specific market, the market price of nylon 6 continues to decline, the listing prices of upstream pure benzene and caprolactam have been lowered, and the cost of nylon 6 has weakened

According to He Junsong, a salesperson of Jilin Petrochemical, nylon 6 has entered the off-season of traditional demand
.
Affected by this, the enthusiasm of aggregation enterprises to start construction is low, and the operating rate is only 60%
.
From the perspective of specific devices, Jiangsu Weiming Petrochemical Co.
, Ltd.
's 100,000-ton/year nylon 6 plant was shut down for maintenance around June 24; Dongming Xuyang's 65,000-ton/year nylon 6 slicing plant was shut down for maintenance on June 21
.
In addition, the Nylon 6 plants of Shi Refinery, Hengrun, Tianchen Yaolong, and Shandong Jiachuang continued to be parked, and the restart time has not been determined
.

Looking at the market outlook, the procurement of raw materials for the nylon 6 industry will continue to maintain sporadic just-needed replenishment
.
Merchants have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the mentality of being safe is strong
.
Not only that, some provinces and cities have recently begun to implement off-peak power consumption, and the operating rate of some downstream enterprises in Zhejiang and Jiangsu has dropped
.
It is expected that the short-term demand for caprolactam will maintain a weak pattern, and the contradiction between market supply and demand will be difficult to improve
.