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Since mid-July, the domestic caprolactam market has continued to decline, and prices have continued to refresh new lows
From the perspective of the future market, the supply is sufficient, the cost collapses, and the demand off-season, it is expected that the short-term caprolactam market will be weak and difficult to change
Prices fall and fall
In early July, the price of caprolactam was still around 14,000 yuan, and since then the market has continued to fall, falling below 12,000 yuan
"The decline is mainly due to the end of the maintenance of Lunan and Tianchen plants, and the general operating rate of northern factories is high, and the overall supply of caprolactam is abundant
At the same time, the loss of the caprolactam industry intensified, continuing to be more than 2,000 yuan
Later, there are many changes in caprolactam devices
Zhuang Xiaohua believes that the late supply of caprolactam determines the market trend
Cost support weakens
Zhou Dongchao, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, believes that another factor that has led to the market price of caprolactam falling to the freezing point is the sluggish market for raw material pure benzene, and the cost support of caprolactam has weakened
Since the end of July, the pure benzene market has been continuously
Although the pure benzene market fell widely, only aniline remained
Due to the continuous loss, the downstream plant maintenance plan is gradually increasing, which increases
In addition, with the opening of the import arbitrage window, the import volume of pure benzene in East China increased, and the implementation of the extended DOLLAR contract
"The insufficient downstream demand for pure benzene, coupled with the increase in imports, the predictable growth of inventory in East China ports has weakened the high momentum
The contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to solve
In the downstream consumption structure of caprolactam in China, nylon 6 fiber accounts for more than 70% of caprolactam consumption, nylon 6 engineering plastics account for 18%, and other fields account for 9%.
Zhou Dongchao analyzed that from the perspective of caprolactam and nylon 6 production demand, the current supply of caprolactam is still sufficient, and the downstream polymerization plant's own slice sales are slow, and the inventory is slow
From the perspective of the specific market, the market price of nylon 6 continues to decline, the price of upstream pure benzene and caprolactam is lowered, and the cost is weakened
According to He Junsong, a salesman at Jilin Petrochemical, nylon 6 has entered the traditional demand off-season
.
Affected by this, the enthusiasm of aggregation enterprises is low, and the operating rate is only 60%.
From the perspective of specific devices, the 100,000 tons/year nylon 6 device of Jiangsu Weiming Petrochemical Co.
, Ltd.
was stopped for maintenance around June 24; Dongming Xuyang 65,000 tons / year nylon 6 slicing device was stopped for maintenance
on June 21.
In addition, the Shi Refining, Hengrun, Tianchen Yaolong, shandong Jiachuang nylon 6 devices continue to be in a state of shutdown, and the restart time is undecided
.
From the perspective of the future market, the raw material procurement of nylon 6 industry will continue to maintain sporadic replenishment
.
Merchants hold coins and wait and see the atmosphere is strong, and the bag is more secure
.
Not only that, recently some provinces and cities have begun to implement staggered peak electricity consumption, and the operating rate of some downstream enterprises in Zhejiang and Jiangsu has declined
.
It is expected that short-term caprolactam demand will remain weak, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market will be difficult to improve
.