Analysis of PVC market in April

The PVC market pulled back slightly this month, down about 2.
34%.

Compared with the previous month's rise of 6.
63, the market turned sharply down, the trading atmosphere of the PVC market in East China and North China was general, the high price shipment was not smooth, the quotation fell slightly, the market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, the merchants operated cautiously, some of the expected to continue to fall down, the actual transaction center of gravity was weak downward, and the price of upstream manufacturers was basically stable, and there were individual pullbacks
.
In April, the settlement price in South China was 5450 yuan (ton price, the same below), down 50 yuan; East China settled at 5,530 yuan, up 70 yuan; North China settlement price of 5340 yuan, down 10 yuan; The ethylene settlement price was 5830 yuan, up 10 yuan
.
Fundamentals: The trading atmosphere of the domestic PVC market is weak
.
At present, the 360,000 tons/year PVC plant in Jinlu, Sichuan is stopped, the 640,000 tons/year PVC plant in Inner Mongolia Junzheng has begun maintenance, and the 300,000 tons/year PVC plant in Dezhou Shihua is under maintenance
.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, GDP grew by 6.
7% in the first quarter of this year, the lowest since 2009, but export data performed well and stopped falling and rebounded
.
The IMF raised China's economic growth rate to 6.
7% from 6.
5%, showing the IMF's confidence in
China's economy.

Upstream, the price trend of ethylene rose, and the average price of ethylene was 965.
40 US dollars / ton by the end of the week, down 0.
83% from the price of 973.
60 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the week, and down 13.
53%
year-on-year.
The ethylene market price is temporarily stable, and the market investment is quiet
.
The price of the domestic calcium carbide market is stable and upward, with the factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers at the beginning of the week being 2138 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers at the weekend being 2143 yuan / ton, up 0.
23% from the previous month and down 12.
69%
from the same period last year.

Affected by the recent PVC products have always been running at a high level, the transaction is weak, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the pressure of enterprise inventory is increasing, although there is a recent spring maintenance benefit, but the PVC market is still tepid, it is expected that the PVC market is more likely to fall
.

This month, the PVC market showed a pattern
of first falling and then rebounding slightly, and then fluctuating and sorting.
Since April, due to the sluggish downstream demand, the futures market price fell, the spring maintenance favorable speculation did not play a positive role, upstream manufacturers inventory began to increase, PVC prices began to decline, just when the industry consensus that PVC will continue to fall or hover at a low level, the national chlor-alkali conference in Hefei held a consensus to agree to guarantee the price, and then the futures rose sharply and the rise of the crude oil sector, driving the spot price that was about to fall, and the price of northwest manufacturers began to rise.
At present, the mainstream price is 5150-5200 yuan / ton
.
The slight rebound at the end of the month is mainly due to the impact of the trend of the futures market, the terminal demand situation has not improved, the overall performance of the real estate market is not good, the overall overcapacity, oversupply, it is expected that the PVC market will return to the downward channel next month, slightly down 1%.