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According to the monitoring data of the cable network, the spot price performance of the PVC market this month fluctuated and fell
.
The average price of PVC spot at the beginning of the month was 5426 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 5276 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton from the price at the beginning of the month, an increase of 2.
76%.
This month, merchant shipments were slow, the overall market atmosphere was light, the transaction situation was not ideal, and the trading atmosphere was lower than that of the previous month
.
The reasons for the decline in PVC market prices this month are as follows:
Macro: This month, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, GDP grew 6.
7% in the first quarter of this year, the lowest since
2009.
The ECB announced that it would keep the deposit rate at minus 0.
4% and the marginal lending rate unchanged at 0.
25
%.
From the perspective of the domestic PVC spot market, the overall spot market is affected by international crude oil quotations, and the commodity market quotations are falling
.
In the upstream market, the price trend of ethylene rose this week, and the average price of ethylene was 965.
40 US dollars / ton by the end of the week, down 0.
83% from the price of 973.
60 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the week, and down 13.
53%
year-on-year.
The ethylene market price is temporarily stable, and the market investment is quiet
.
The price of the domestic calcium carbide market is stable and upward, with the factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers at the beginning of the week being 2138 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers at the weekend being 2143 yuan / ton, up 0.
23% from the previous month and down 12.
69%
from the same period last year.
Spot market: This month, the domestic PVC spot market pulled back
slightly.
As of April 29, the settlement price in South China was 5450 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton; North China settled at 5340 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton
.
Fundamentals: The trading atmosphere of the domestic PVC market is weak
.
The early downstream stocking continued, PVC enterprise inventory also decreased rapidly, the factory price also rose with the trend, to the later downstream enterprises to complete the stocking task, the market returned to stability, enterprises maintained a high level of consolidation situation
.
Future market forecast: This month, the market monetary easing and the commodity market recovered
strongly.
The upstream ethylene supply is tight, and the price of ethylene is firm, which has a strong
support for the cost of ethylene PVC.
The downstream demand for high-priced raw materials has slowed down, and the market is mainly wait-and-see, but relevant enterprises in the industry have reached a consensus on price insurance to maintain market stability, and calcium carbide prices are relatively strong in the short term, which supports PVC costs strongly, and the fundamentals are expected to maintain range-bound volatility in the short term
.
