Analysis of LME aluminum inventories with the previous period

In the first half of 2020, global exchange aluminum inventories rose slightly overall
.
LME aluminium stocks rose 12%
from 1.
47 million tonnes to 1.
65 million tonnes.
Although the overall global aluminum inventory rose, it was differentiated, and unlike the continuous recovery of LME inventory, domestic inventory fell
significantly in the second quarter.

Under the background of the gradual control of the impact of the domestic epidemic, the downstream resumption of work and production has been steadily advancing since mid-February, the market terminal demand has gradually recovered, and the inventory in the previous period of mid-March has ushered in a downward turning point
.
Among them, the aluminum inventory in the previous period fell by 212,000 tons from 534,000 tons in the week of March 16 to 322,000 tons
on May 25.

The change in domestic social inventory is similar
to that of the previous period.
Domestic social stocks rose from 589,000 tons to more than 1.
5 million tons, and then fell to 671,000 tons, an overall increase of 15%.

With the growth of domestic production capacity, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes on the demand side in the second half of the year, and pay attention to whether inventories will show an inflection point
in the third quarter like in 2017.

The destocking process of domestic aluminum inventory directly reflects the good development of the entire demand side, since the end of March and the beginning of April, the domestic aluminum inventory has been continuously destocked, even in July of the traditional consumption off-season, the futures inventory still has different degrees of decline
.
With the advent of the summer traditional consumption off-season, it is expected that aluminum inventory will have a period of accumulation process, but the accumulation time and amount are believed to be not too large
.