Analysis of LME aluminum inventories in the previous period of 2017

In 2017, global aluminum inventories showed a diametrically opposite trend
.
On the one hand, foreign aluminum inventories continue to decline, and on the other hand, domestic aluminum inventories continue to hit new highs
.
This also shows that from a global perspective, there is a large supply gap in the aluminum market, but it is still in excess at home
.
Especially with the rise in aluminum prices and the increase in new production capacity, the production of aluminum has formed a booster.

Domestically, according to the past seasonal law, generally from March to May each year aluminum inventory will begin to decline, but from the overall trend of Shanghai aluminum inventory in 2017, it is not difficult to find that the past as a decline node from March to May, in the last year became the beginning of the inventory boom, since then the inventory continues to rise, and frequently hit a new high, as of December 26 Shanghai aluminum inventory has risen to 741324 tons, and hit a record high
。 In contrast, in foreign countries, Lun aluminum inventory continued the decline momentum in 2016, not only fell continuously but also frequently hit new lows, as of December 26, Lun aluminum inventory was 1104950 tons, continuing to refresh a nine-year low
.

Data show that since 2014, the global electrolytic aluminum is in the destocking stage, the overall supply is tight, LME aluminum inventory has fallen by an average of 1 million tons per year, from the highest of 2803 US dollars / ton in May 2011 fell by 48.
9% to November 2015 1432.
5 US dollars / ton
.
During this period, the economic state of the global electrolytic aluminum industry deteriorated sharply, the gross profit of the enterprise fell sharply, and even the loss was serious, affected by this, the global electrolytic aluminum industry, especially the overseas electrolytic aluminum industry, began to clear production capacity, and the market took the initiative to inventory
.
According to industry estimates, the global aluminum market supply shortage in 2018 is expected to expand from 1.
3 million tons in 2017 to 1.
7 million to 1.
8 million tons
.

In the case of foreign aluminum inventory tightening, domestic inventories have risen sharply, which has a great impact on the market, from the trend of Shanghai aluminum and Lun aluminum, the trend of London aluminum in part of the year is stronger than Shanghai aluminum, and the impact of inventory is self-evident
.
In 2017, due to the large domestic production in the first half of the year, the demand for real estate, automobiles, etc.
declined, and inventories continued to refresh their highs, and there was no significant decline throughout the year, and this high inventory may become the norm in 2018
.