Analysis of domestic spot aluminum price trend from January to June

In the first half of 2020, aluminum prices as a whole showed a sharp rise and fall, from January to April in a continuous decline, from May to June the price center of gravity rebounded rapidly, and aluminum prices have rebounded to pre-epidemic levels
.
However, as aluminum consumption gradually enters the off-season, while smelting capacity continues to release increments, the margin of supply and demand will further weaken, the arrival of inventory inflection point is not far away, aluminum prices upward resistance increases, but considering the uncertainty of the accumulation rhythm and the difficulty of returning to high inventory before the delivery of July contracts, aluminum prices may not fall smoothly
.

Since January, due to the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic, aluminum prices have fallen
sharply.
In order to alleviate the impact of the epidemic, relevant stimulus policies have been introduced at the national level, and since April, various economic data have continued to recover, such as the manufacturing index has returned to above the withered line, and the economic restart of various countries has had a positive impact on the future market expectations, strengthening the momentum
of aluminum prices.
In addition, the arrival of the epidemic has led to global easing, a large amount of hot money has joined the financial market, and the futures side has also taken advantage of the wind, which has greatly driven the upward
trend of aluminum prices.
In the second half of the year, overseas, it is especially necessary to pay attention to the control of the epidemic and the recovery of economic activities in the United States, if there is a significant upturn, it will be conducive to further driving the global economic production activities to continue to improve, then it will be conducive to boosting overseas demand
.

In terms of fundamentals, downstream demand brought about by the resumption of production and work was strong, and market consumption began to grow sharply in April, with inventories falling to around 700,000 tons, low inventories giving bullish support, and aluminum prices rising
.
However, as aluminum consumption gradually enters the off-season, while smelting capacity continues to release increments, the margin of supply and demand will further weaken, the arrival of inventory inflection point is not far away, aluminum prices upward resistance increases, but considering the uncertainty of the accumulation rhythm and the difficulty of returning to high inventory before the delivery of July contracts, aluminum prices may not fall smoothly
.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, supply and demand will recover
as the impact of the epidemic weakens.
Due to the recovery of domestic aluminum prices, profit repair, high profits will stimulate electrolytic aluminum enterprises to accelerate the resumption of production and production progress
.
The recovery of the demand side is still not clear, and whether domestic demand will fall back in the third quarter, whether overseas demand can recover, and whether the secondary impact of the epidemic will affect demand again is the focus
of attention.