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According to the monitoring data of the cable network: from January to June 2016, the domestic spot aluminum price rose sharply, represented by the Yangtze River spot market, the average price of Yangtze River spot A00 aluminum ingots in early January was about 10950 yuan / ton, and the end of June to 12740 yuan / ton, the price increase was about 16.
34%.
Analysis of the main factors of the sharp rise in spot aluminum prices from January to June 2016:
After last year's aluminum price bottom rebound, at the beginning of 2016, Shanghai aluminum first began with a long platform sorting, into February, with the release of downstream demand, and the previous shutdown of production capacity has not returned for a while, market supply and demand mismatch drove aluminum prices out of the upward trend, and then aluminum prices all the way up, changing the previous decline
.
Due to the continuous decline in domestic aluminum ingot inventory, Shanghai aluminum exceeded 12,000 yuan / ton in mid-April, and the extremely tense atmosphere of spot goods was superimposed on the peak season effect, and domestic aluminum prices repeatedly hit new highs in the year, while driving LME aluminum to rise and strengthen
.
In addition, in April, the soaring black commodities with also greater supply-side reform pressure triggered market speculation, there was a wave of investment in commodities, and the aluminum market with better supply reform also focused on cost funds, and Shanghai aluminum was pulled up sharply, with a cumulative increase of 35.
5%
from last year's bottom.
Aluminum price outlook for the second half of the year:
In the first half of 2016, domestic aluminum prices rose sharply, and there are now signs of
falling back after soaring.
From a macro point of view, the Fed did not raise interest rates at its June meeting, the US dollar index as a whole fluctuated at a low level, looking forward to the future market, the probability of interest rate hikes is increasing, and global risk events are increasing, aluminum prices face more macro risks
in the later stage.
From a fundamental point of view, the rise in aluminum prices has expanded the profit space of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, which to a certain extent stimulated the willingness of aluminum enterprises to resume production, resulting in obvious domestic production capacity investment; The demand side has shrunk with the passing of the consumption season, and the supply and demand structure will continue to deteriorate in the third quarter, which will make aluminum prices continue to come under pressure, and later or gradually fall.
