With the arrival of the peak consumption season, the center of gravity of Shanghai rubber will still move up

Recently, the price of Shanghai rubber futures has plummeted, especially the far month contract, which has fallen even more, mainly due to the market's repair
of the 1701 contract's excessive premium over the 1609 contract.
In addition, there are market rumors that Thailand will limit exports or lift the ban, and there may be speculation
of funds.

Since August, the rubber spot market is still in a tight balance pattern, the spot price corresponding to futures delivery products has not improved, mainly subject to the scope of use, but other rubber varieties are showing a tense situation, mainly due to the normal downstream procurement and more rain in the early stage, domestic imports are limited
.
The fundamentals of supply and demand in the rubber market are in a tight balance
.

Specifically, on the supply side, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia reached a new rubber export reduction plan in mid-August, Thailand cut exports by 75,750 tons of rubber from September to December, and Indonesia cut 9,350 tons of rubber, but the implementation of the previous export tonnage plan was poor, the market attention was not high, and the impact on the supply side was limited
.
At present, the weather conditions in the main producing areas are good, the domestic and foreign markets have fully entered the peak period of rubber tapping, and the pressure on the supply side has increased
.
In terms of demand, the growth rate of passenger car sales in July hit the highest in 17 months, heavy-duty sales in July increased by 33.
51% year-on-year, and the operating rate of tire enterprises since August has basically remained at about 70%, better than the same period last year, and the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone also showed a continuous decline; The off-season is not light, and the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption season is approaching, and the demand side support has become stronger
.

In the near future, with the improvement of the weather, the supply of raw materials in foreign production areas began to be slowly released, raw material prices began to fall, sufficient supply is expected to increase, and downstream consumption is still in the off-season, making rubber prices under pressure
.
Under the atmosphere of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, the overall trend of commodity prices is under pressure, coupled with the rubber market due to its own factors, the downward trend is more significant
.

In the short term, the trend of rubber futures prices is still not optimistic, because the return of futures will continue, until the delivery in September, the price is difficult to be optimistic
.
In the later stage, it depends on whether the cooperation of downstream demand will improve, in order to determine the possibility and height
of the rebound of the price of tianjiao.

Looking forward to the future market, the seasonal supply season coupled with the pressure of huge warehouse receipts has made the rebound of Shanghai rubber futures prices weak, but the off-season is not light, and the support below rubber prices is also strong, and the short-term 1701 contract may maintain a volatile trend
.
In the later stage, with the arrival of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption season, the center of gravity of Shanghai rubber futures prices will still move upward, and long orders
can be established at the low level of adjustment.