Will PLA production capacity explode?

TK bio-based materials report: The global plastic restriction policy has increased, and PLA has ushered in an outbreak cycle
.
In March 2022, representatives of 175 countries reached an agreement at the United Nations Environment Assembly in Nairobi to end plastic pollution by the end of 2024.
The agreement is internationally legally binding
.
Prior to this, governments around the world have begun to continue to increase the restrictions on plastic policies.
Among them, China and the European Union have upgraded the "plastic restriction order" to a "plastic ban order"
.
In 2020, China announced the "Opinions on Further Strengthening the Control of Plastic Pollution", which clearly stipulated the categories, tasks, regions, and time for the ban on single-use plastics
.
The decree has now entered its second phase
.

In the environment of increasing policies in various countries, degradable plastics are ushering in an explosive cycle, and PLA is the material with the most development potential, and the future demand space is the most broad
.

PLA (polylactic acid) is also known as polylactic acid.
The production process of polylactic acid is pollution-free, and the product can be biodegraded to achieve circulation in nature.
Therefore, it is an ideal green polymer material and a representative of bio-based biodegradable plastics.
one
.

Raw material source of PLA: Polylactic acid (PLA) is a new type of bio-based and renewable biodegradable material, which is made from starch raw materials extracted from renewable plant resources (such as corn, cassava, etc.
)
.

The starch raw material is saccharified to obtain glucose, and then fermented from glucose and certain strains to produce high-purity lactic acid, and then chemical synthesis method is used to synthesize polylactic acid with a certain molecular weight.
The polymerization chain is as follows
.

Starch---(refining)--->glucose---(fermentation)--->lactic acid---(cyclization)--->lactide---(polymerization)--->PLA

As for the acquisition of glucose, the traditional process:

The raw materials of the first-generation process are corn, wheat and other grain crops.
In fact, pumpkin, sweet potato, taro, potato, potato, etc.
are all grain crops with high starch content
.

The raw materials of the second-generation process are non-grain crops such as sugar cane, cassava, and sweet sorghum.
The extraction and fermentation of these starchy plants can also produce lactic acid
.

The raw materials of the third-generation process are agricultural wastes such as straw.
The straw contains a lot of starch, and the corn straw and wheat straw have high sugar content
.

How is polylactic acid synthesized?

Polylactic acid is a new polymer polyester material obtained by polymerization of lactic acid or lactide, a dimer of lactic acid
.
Lactic acid is a chiral molecule with two optical isomers, L-lactic acid and D-lactic acid
.
At present, the purity of lactic acid is one of the key links affecting the properties of polylactic acid products
.
At present, the methods for preparing polylactic acid are divided into one-step method and two-step method, namely, lactide ring-opening polymerization method and direct polycondensation method
.

What is the degree of industrialization and technical difficulties of polylactic acid?

PLA is currently the most mature biodegradable material with the largest output and the most extensive application
.
The synthesis method includes three stages: raw material reaction, chemical process and physical process
.
The ring-opening polymerization method is mainly used in industry, and the technical difficulty of the industrial chain lies in the synthesis and purification of lactide
.

PLA process roadmap

The domestic plastic restriction policy continues to advance, and the market demand for PLA is expected to reach 2.
08 million tons by 2025
.
According to the implementation tasks of the "Opinions on Further Strengthening the Control of Plastic Pollution", combined with the progress of industry expansion, by 2025, the demand for degradable plastics in China will be about 4.
11 million tons, of which the market demand for polylactic acid will reach 2.
08 million tons, and the CAGR (22E -25E) is expected to reach 72.
8%
.

Short-term policy dividends stimulate the first wave of PLA production expansion, and lactide production capacity and technology are the winners
.
According to the analysis by a researcher of Shanghai Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Research Institute Co.
, Ltd.
, under the background of plastic ban, the market is accelerating the expansion of polylactic acid production capacity, and it is expected that the new domestic production capacity will be about 2.
52 million tons in the next 3-5 years
.
On the other hand, the current expansion of domestic polylactic acid is limited by the shortage of lactide capacity.
As of January 2022, there is only 150,000 tons/year of lactide capacity in China
.

In the face of the large-scale expansion of polylactic acid production capacity in the future, there will be a large gap in the production capacity of lactide
.
Therefore, companies with lactide production capacity in the next three years may become the "biggest winners" in the market
.

Long-term PLA bulk demand depends on the degree of cost reduction, and high-end demand depends on research and development capabilities such as polylactic acid modification
.
In the long run, the demand for PLA will be driven by the market, cost control will determine the replacement rate of bulk applications, and integrated capacity expansion will effectively solve the stable supply of raw materials and control of manufacturing costs
.
It is estimated that under the integrated production capacity, the complete cost of polylactic acid can be reduced to a minimum of 13,000 yuan / ton.
If the raw material for lactic acid production can be replaced with straw, the cost still has room for reduction
.
After modification, PLA can be extended to high-end application fields such as biomedicine.
With the accumulation of modification technology, high-end application scenarios will also be expanded in the future
.

It is recommended to pay attention to the leading manufacturers of the integration of the PLA industry chain, the PLA production capacity layout is relatively fast, the manufacturers with lactide technology and production capacity, and the PLA vertical modification leader
.
The industry logic is strong in the short and medium term, and companies with large-scale polylactic acid production capacity and lactide technology are expected to be the winners at this stage
.
But in the long run, the market will return to the drive of cost and innovation, industry competition will intensify, and with the layout of the whole industry chain, it will be possible to reduce prices and increase market share
.