Will lithium prices continue to skyrocket next year?

With the continuous supply of tight supply and the continuous increase in the demand for electric vehicles, the global lithium market price this year has hit a record high almost every day!

Driven by expectations of limited supply and good demand, this trend is expected to continue in 2022

According to data from Platts Energy Information, since the beginning of 2021, the price of seaborne lithium carbonate has risen by 413%, and the North Asian CIF price was US$32,600/ton in mid-December

Some market participants said that due to the bullish supply and demand, lithium prices will remain strong in 2022

Standard & Poor's global market intelligence (MI) shows that by 2022, the supply of lithium chemicals is expected to be 636,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, which is higher than the 408,000 tons in 2020 and the estimated 497,000 tons in 2021

MI predicts that the demand for lithium chemicals will reach 641,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2022, which is higher than 342,000 tons in 2020 and 504,000 tons in 2021

Therefore, the estimated supply gap of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2022 is 5,000 tons, while the remaining 66,000 tons in 2020, and the supply gap in 2021 is estimated to be 8,000 tons

At present, the market's understanding of lithium resources is being reshaped

The acceleration of production capacity expansion of some lithium battery manufacturers and the increase in orders for downstream cathode materials have driven the rapid rise of lithium prices

According to data analyzed by Platts, global sales of plug-in light electric vehicles will be 3.

In order to meet the growing demand, some lithium producers are planning to expand their production capacity, and it is expected that most of the new production will be available in the second half of 2022 at the earliest

The source said that the supply of lithium resources in the first quarter of next year will be very tight, and there should be an improvement in the second quarter; in the second half of the year, the new supply can bring some relief to the market, and may begin to see some price adjustments

All existing suppliers are currently planning to expand

Recently, MARBL, a joint venture between Albemarle and Minerals Resources of Western Australia, announced that it plans to restart one of the Wodgina lithium mine's three 250,000 tons/year processing lines in the third quarter of 2022

Livent resumed its expansion plan and will add 5,000 tons of lithium hydroxide production capacity in the United States, and is expected to achieve commercial production in the third quarter of 2022

Chilean lithium mining company SQM has proposed a plan to expand the production capacity of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide.

Pilbara Minerals, a lithium miner, expects to have a production capacity of 180,000 to 200,000 tons per year at its Ngungaju plant in Western Australia starting in the middle of 2022

　　New projects to be launched next year also include Lithium Americas' 40,000-ton/year carbonate business in Argentina and Sigma Lithium's 330,000-ton/year spodumene project in Brazil
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