Why is the price of melamine cut in half?

　　Recently, the domestic melamine price has dropped sharply to more than 8,000 yuan (ton price, the same below).
Compared with the high point of last year, the price has been cut in half, and the industry has also suffered serious losses
.
Why did the price of melamine fall sharply? In the author's opinion, the main reason is that the global real estate has entered a downward channel, and the terminal demand is seriously insufficient
.

　　The downstream of melamine is mainly artificial boards and paints, and the terminal demand is the real estate field
.
From a domestic perspective, according to statistics, from January to April, the housing construction area of ​​China's real estate development enterprises was about 8.
186 billion square meters, which was flat year-on-year; the newly started housing area was about 398 million square meters, down 26.
3%; the completed housing area was 200 million square meters, A decrease of 11.
9%; the sales area of ​​commercial housing was about 398 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.
9%; the land purchase area was 17.
66 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 46.
5%
.
Although in response to the sluggish real estate market, the relevant state departments have introduced a series of measures to save the market, such as interest rate cuts, down payment reductions, and relaxation of house purchase restrictions, but the transmission of policies will take time.
The domestic real estate market is still sluggish, and the demand for melamine is expected to show a double-digit decline.

.

　　From abroad, most of the world has entered a cycle of raising interest rates, which has suppressed the real estate market
.
Developed countries in the world have fallen into serious inflationary predicament, and more and more countries are raising interest rates, which has restrained the real estate industry, and the real estate market has entered a downward cycle
.
In the United States, for example, sales of new single-family homes fell to a two-year low in April
.
The National Association of Realtors' second-hand housing contract volume index fell 3.
9% month-on-month.
The latest second-hand housing contract volume fell for six consecutive months and was at the slowest pace in nearly a year
.

　　The price of urea abroad is much higher than that in China, which means that the cost of melamine abroad is much higher than that in China, and China's melamine export has absolute price competitiveness
.
In the absence of any restrictions on the export of melamine, domestic melamine still falls below the cost, which also shows that the international demand is extremely sluggish
.

　　On the whole, the terminal demand is sluggish, resulting in a sharp drop in the market price of melamine
.
At present, the melamine market is in a state of competition between upstream and downstream.
On the one hand, upstream manufacturers are unwilling to reduce prices due to cost reasons, and their inventories increase
; In the later stage of the melamine market trend, we need to pay attention to which side has the right to speak
.