Why is the price of chemical products "rising and rising" again during the off-season

General "increased", some products increased their prices by several thousand yuan in less than a month, Shandong's rainy and snowy weather-"increased", a Japanese chemical plant caught fire-"increased", a Korean factory overhauled-"increased".

According to the researcher, entering October, as the economy continues to improve, market confidence is established, coupled with the launch of demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, foreign Christmas season purchases, and the superposition of state assistance to enterprises, promotion of consumption, and promotion of autos to the countryside, etc.
With the implementation of this policy, market demand has increased significantly, and companies have concentrated their purchases, but the inventory and production preparations in multiple links in the industry chain are insufficient, which has caused the pressure on companies to complete orders to double, and the prices of chemical products have risen in turn, breaking the seasonal law.

From the perspective of the three types of olefin products that are rising this round, in addition to the ethylene mentioned above, butadiene is mainly a raw material for synthetic rubber and tires; the downstream of propylene is mainly melt blown cloth (mask material) and other various materials.
Class textile materials, disinfectant, etc.
These three types of raw materials are widely used in daily necessities, home appliances, automobiles, tires, packaging, medical care, mobile phones, real estate and other fields related to the national economy and people's livelihood.
Many downstream products are also hot-selling products exported during the epidemic.

"The good market performance of olefin products also reflects the current positive trend of China's processing industry.
" said the researcher.

It is worth noting that the reporter learned from a number of industry insiders that in the tide of price increases, the market is very concerned about supply, so the reaction to relevant news is also more sensitive.
For example, rain and snow in major production areas such as Shandong in November, and accidents or overhauls of companies in Japan and South Korea will trigger market concerns about further tightening of supplies and push up prices.
At the same time, the speculation in the futures market has further aggravated market panic and price fluctuations.

　　The off-season is not short, the market is still or continues

　　From a later point of view, the reporter's investigation learned that due to the rapid rise of some varieties, there has been a callback recently, and the possibility of continuing the callback cannot be ruled out in the later period.

　　"For example, plasticizers, butanols, acetones, etc.
, the previous increase was too high, and there will be a callback process.
" The researcher said, but at least this year, the fundamentals supporting the improvement of the chemical industry are still strong.

　　The leading indicator data released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on November 30 show that in November, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index They were 52.
1%, 56.
4%, and 55.
7%, respectively.
The three major indexes all hit new highs during the year, indicating that the economic recovery is progressing steadily.

　　In terms of different industries, in November, 90% of the manufacturing industry has been in the expansion range.
The production index and new order index of industries closely related to the chemical industry, such as medicine, electrical machinery and equipment, computer communication electronic equipment, and instrumentation are all higher than 56% .

　　At the same time, the pulling effect of exports is still increasing.
The new export orders index in the manufacturing PMI sub-index in November was 0.
5 percentage points higher than that in October, which was at the highest point of the year and was in the expansion range for three consecutive months.

　　"Based on the current economic fundamentals, we believe that the current low-season sales of chemical products are expected to continue until the Spring Festival.
By the end of this year, the chemical index will remain at around 1,000 points.
" The researcher said.

　　As of November 25, the organic chemical (including petrochemical and coal chemical) price index closed at 1006.
52, an increase of 43.
5% from the low point during the year, and it was close to returning to the price level before the epidemic.

　　Jin Yiteng, chief analyst of the Kaiyuan Securities chemical team, said that standing at the current point, he continues to be firmly optimistic about pro-cyclical, price-increasing, low-inventory varieties and the leading chemical sub-industry.

Transfer from: Xinhua News Agency

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