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Yesterday's Shanghai copper price stood at the 60,000 mark in one fell swoop, although the recent fundamental situation was not very satisfactory
due to the impact of the downstream consumption off-season.
However, due to the close smooth transition of the US regime and the continued strengthening of market expectations that the Democratic Party will introduce more stimulus policies in the future, this has largely supported copper prices from the macro level
.
In addition, when prices are rising, there are no obvious signs of holders giving up the discount for shipments, indicating that the market is still more optimistic about the outlook for the future market
.
On the macro front, the current global low interest rate and ultra-loose monetary policy are still more likely to continue in the future, which is a very favorable factor for commodities, and as far as Fed monetary policy is concerned, there are no conditions for immediately changing the current ultra-loose monetary policy in the future, so the dollar is likely to remain weak
.
In the spot market, the wait-and-see mood is strong, the receiving sentiment is not good, and the downstream consumption is general
.
Fundamental support is limited, domestic inventory inflection points have appeared, and consumption has weakened
seasonally.
On the macro side, however, the picture is more optimistic
.
On the fundamental side, the CSPT team finalized the copper concentrate processing fee floor price for the first quarter of 2021 at $53/mt and $5.
3/lb, down $5 and 0.
5 cents from the fourth quarter of 2020, and the future supply is still difficult to say loose
.
On the demand side, as the most important demand country, China is currently the most effective country in controlling the new crown epidemic
.
Therefore, it is expected that the probability of sustained recovery of domestic economic activity in 2021 is relatively high
.
In addition, the country's 14th Five-Year Plan attaches importance to the new energy sector, and will continue to support the demand for copper varieties
.
