Western oil price limits are no farce! Squeezing the space of the Russian oil market, it is difficult to escape the fate of price reduction

The oil price limit given to Russia by the seven Western countries makes many of us look like this is a farce, and we are wondering if the Western brain is broken
.
In fact, after repeated brewing, Westerners dare to release the trick of price limit, which shows that this matter must not be so simple, it is not that Russia does not sell you the West, you can put me so simple things, Western countries must have carefully calculated, think that they have grasped some of Russia's weaknesses, before they dare to do
so.
Recently, I saw a message, of course, this news was unilaterally denied by Russia, but I am afraid that there is no wind and no waves, at least this news released by Bloomberg can help us better understand the real purpose
behind this wave of price limit operations in Western countries.
The news is that Russia is negotiating with India to offer India a bigger discount on crude oil in exchange for India not participating in the Western-initiated wave
of price limits on Russian oil.
This news is very intriguing
.

We can look at it from several aspects, first of all, this shows that Russia is looking for a buyer for its own oil, indicating that Russia is worried about who will Russia sell its oil to once the Western price limit really begins to be implemented? According to Russia, once the Western oil price limit for Russia is implemented, Russia will immediately stop oil exports
to Western countries.
Now it seems that Russia is probably already making preparations, once this oil is not sold to the West, to whom can it be sold?

Obviously, India, a major oil importer, has bought a lot of Russian 30% crude oil before, and is an important buyer
in the eyes of Russia.
Secondly, Russia hopes to use further discounted preferential prices in exchange for India's refusal to participate in the West's oil price limit activities for Russia, which confirms from one side that the oil price limit that the West is ready to implement, not only the participation of the seven Western countries, but also the coercion of more countries to join, and the scope of this limit will be much
larger than the scope of the seven Western countries we imagined 。 Otherwise, it is difficult to explain, why is Russia ready to discount on the basis of the previous preferential price of 30%, this discount is the silver of the white flowers, which is Russia's direct economic loss, why should it be done? There is no doubt that Russia is worried about more big powers participating in
the West's oil price limit.
Third, once the Western oil price limit is implemented, it will directly narrow the export market of Russian oil, more than half of the original export oil has been sold to European countries, this time plus Japan, Canada, and possibly South Korea, the oil price limit will greatly squeeze the sales market of Russian oil
, the message is that Russia opens other markets, and the means to find new markets is to reduce prices.

We have repeatedly said in previous programs that Russia's oil must be exported, because oil exports are the lifeblood of the Russian economy and the backbone of Russia's state finances, and this has been the case in the past, especially
today when it is being blocked by comprehensive Western sanctions 。 The question now is, to whom are these Russian oil exports sold? Global oil demand has not changed much in the short term, and now the Western countries directly give Russian oil a price limit, from the perspective of market supply and demand, Russia has only two choices, either to comply with the Western hegemonic oil limit order, sold to the Western countries at a price of $44 per barrel, or immediately stop oil exports to Western countries and find new buyers for these oils
.

The former affirmation is impossible, not to mention that Russia does not agree, I believe that the majority of netizens do not agree
.
Because it is overbearing, how much do my family's resources sell, and you price me? This is typical bullying and
hegemony.
Well, Russia can only choose the latter and find new buyers
for these oils that would have been sold to the West.
Believing in Russia's choice, the West has long expected that it is impossible for a policy that has been brewing over and over again without taking into account various possible outcomes
.
So have we ever thought that Russia's choice is exactly what the West wants? According to many of our netizens, if Russia cuts off oil exports to Western countries, then the West will suffer a blow from higher oil prices and the inflation of Western countries will be more serious
.
However, have you ever considered that oil from Middle Eastern oil producers now dominates the oil supply structure of Western countries, and as U.
S.
oil production rises, the proportion of oil from the United States and Canada is getting higher and higher, and the transportation of oil as an energy source is far more convenient than natural gas, and it is more convenient
to transfer between different markets.

At the same time, Western countries are the world's most important oil consumption market, and any oil-producing country is willing to share a piece of this market and cannot do without this market
.
Once Russian oil leaves the Western market, there will be many oil-producing countries willing to fill this gap, far from mentioning, before we talked about the reason why Kazakhstan annoyed Russia, one of the reasons is that President Tokayev publicly expressed to the EU that Kazakhstan is willing to expand oil exports to the EU to replace the market gap
after the withdrawal of Russian oil.
Not to mention Kazakhstan, Iran and Venezuela, two heavyweight players who have been kicked out of the international oil market by the West, are also very willing to go to Western countries to fill the supply gap
after the departure of Russian oil once the sanctions are relaxed.
Moreover, Western countries generally have relatively complete and huge oil reserves, and they will not fail to evaluate
this transformation process of the market.

Then the problem comes, now the Western countries are coercing and luring more and more countries to join their own oil price limits, in the next step of the price limit order implementation measures, it is likely to support the sanctions of those who do not implement the price limit order of international shipping companies, financial enterprises, to Russia's oil exports to create heavier transportation and financial services obstacles, and then directly sanction does not implement the price limit order of oil importing countries is not impossible, these means have been used in the process of the United States oil blockade on Iran
。

In short, Russia's next step in finding an oil buyer will only be greater, not smaller
, than we think.
The world's major oil consumers, in addition to the seven Western countries and the remaining EU countries, may be the BRICS countries in addition to Russia's four countries, plus Turkey, Mexico and other countries, although the Western countries plus the previous major developing countries, the number is not much, but in the oil consumption market, the other countries are not enough to consume the oil
sold by Russia to the Western countries 。 Therefore, there is not much room left for Russia to choose, and there will undoubtedly be many of these major developing countries that have to worry about the attitude of the United States and the West and blatantly go to the United States and the West to dismantle Taiwan, many countries do not dare or are unwilling to do it, do not laugh at people's timidity, just like between people, seeking benefits and avoiding harm is also the criterion for exchanges between countries, developing countries want to develop their economies, they must deal with Western countries, this is an unavoidable choice
。 Therefore, the choice of choice, the real possibility of shouldering things, the courage to refuse to participate in the sanctions may be that we can count these few developing countries with one hand, of course, India, which has taken advantage of geopolitical advantages, is a typical representative
.

Bloomberg's statement that Russia is negotiating with India to further reduce prices in exchange for India's non-participation in Western oil price limits is by no means an empty idea
in my opinion.
If Russia wants to expand the market of these big oil consumers, almost the only means that can be used is to reduce prices, otherwise why should people change the structure of their own oil supply and expand the import of Russian oil under the pressure of the United States and the West? But the question is, once these countries accept Russia's oil that is significantly below the international market price, what will happen to the international oil price? None of us have to guess, we'll see it
soon.