Weekly Market Report(2022.12.19-12.23)

Methanol: range oscillation

As of the close of trading on December 23, the intertemporal spread between methanol 2301 and 2305 contracts was 34 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the methanol front-month contract was slightly stronger
.
Futures fell under pressure, and spot was in a premium state compared with the main methanol contract 2305, with a basis of 75 yuan
.

In terms of spot, the methanol market sentiment was weak, and the price fluctuated down
.

On the supply side, as of December 22, the operating load of methanol production units was 70.
28%, up 0.
15 percentage points from the previous month and 1.
64 percentage points
higher than the same period last year.
Boosted by the increase in operating load in North China, the operating level of the methanol industry increased
slightly.

In terms of inventories, methanol stocks in coastal areas continued their low volatility trend, increasing to 652,000 tons, up 06,800 tons from the previous month, and the overall circulable source is expected to be around
176,000 tons.
It is estimated that from late December to early January 2023, the arrival volume of China's imported cargo will be 501,400~510,000 tons
.

In the downstream, most of the coal-to-olefin plants operated smoothly, the load of individual units fluctuated slightly, and the average operating load increased slightly to 74.
77%, and methanol was purchased
just in demand.
Traditional demand performance is sluggish, formaldehyde and dimethyl ether start declined, methyl tert-butyl ether, acetic acid began to rise in a narrow range, maintaining a tepid trend
.

In the future, after entering the winter, there are signs
of weakening on the demand side of methanol.
Downstream plants are facing shutdowns and holidays, and methanol demand is tepid
.
It is expected that the methanol futures price may continue the range-bound trend in the short term, and the center of gravity will run
within 2460~2630 yuan.

(Founder mid-period, Xia Congcong)

PTA: Concussion finishing

Last week, PTA futures prices showed a consolidation trend
.
The TA05 contract rose by 54 yuan, or 1.
01% for the week, to close at 5406 yuan
.

In terms of spot, as of December 23, the PTA spot market rose 57 yuan to 5482 yuan
for the week.

On the supply side, Yisheng Hainan plant resumed normal operation, two sets of 7.
2 million tons/year Yisheng New Materials plant were reduced, Sichuan Energy Investment 1 million tons/year plant continued to delay restart, and other devices were slightly adjusted
.
As of December 23, PTA operating load was 60.
3%, down 3.
4% weekly, and PTA operating load fell to the lowest level in recent years
.

On the demand side, polyester filament yarn continued to have a new maintenance plan, and the staple fiber load was stable
.
As of December 23, polyester loads were 66.
8%, down 1.
1%
weekly.

From the terminal point of view, as of December 23, affected by the lack of workers to work, the operating rate of elasticization and weaving fell by 14% and 20% respectively, and after the terminal start fell sharply, the inventory of polyester finished products turned from a large destocking to a small accumulation
.

From the perspective of the future market, although the PTA price continues to rebound, it is still dominated by a wide range of volatility markets, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level
of 5600 yuan.

(Founder mid-Cheng Xuefei)

Soda ash: weakened in case of resistance

Last week, the high of soda ash futures was prevented from rising, and there was a trend of weakening volatility
.
As of December 23, SA2305 closed up 4 yuan to 2652 yuan, a weekly increase of 0.
15%.

On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash plants rebounded in stages, reaching 90.
87% last week and 0.
2%
month-on-month.
Soda ash production was 599,900 tons, down 07,300 tons month-on-month, a weekly decrease of 1.
2%.

In terms of inventory, the inventory of soda ash production enterprises increased in stages, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises was 324,000 tons, an increase of 36,600 tons from the previous month, an increase of 12.
73%.

Inventories are expected to remain low from late December to early January
.

In terms of demand, the domestic soda ash market is stuck in a narrow range of shock sorting, and the market trading atmosphere is moderate
.
Downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass manufacturers are not profitable, and their enthusiasm for soda ash procurement is not high, and they insist on using and harvesting
.

In terms of consumption, downstream raw material inventories are low, just need to be replenished, but inventory intentions are not strong, maintain low inventory
.
Some industries have cold repair plans, and the demand is reduced, but the impact on soda ash demand is weak
.
Traders ship to maintain stable operation, and downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay
.

In the future, the price of soda ash is high and regional weak fluctuations
.
The profits of the downstream glass industry continue to compress, and procurement is mainly
on-demand procurement.
It is expected that the soda ash futures market will maintain a regional shock after the possibility of sorting, and the pullback pressure will continue to increase after the continuous rise, and the trend is still dominated by weak
shocks.

(Industrial Securities Futures Shi Hai)

Natural rubber: downward pressure

Last week, natural rubber futures undertook the previous high regional weak shock consolidation trend, and continued to unilaterally fluctuate
downward.
As of December 23, Hujiao RU2305 closed down 120 yuan to 12,600 yuan, a weekly decline of 0.
95%; No.
20 rubber NR2303 closed down 130 yuan to 9440 yuan, a weekly decline of 1.
36%.

On the supply side, the supply of domestic rubber tends to shrink, and the supply pressure is reduced
.
In Southeast Asian production areas, the overall production of glue has increased, the future market is in a seasonal incremental stage, the release of raw materials will increase, and the price of raw materials in Thailand may continue to fall
.

In terms of stocks, as of December 23, Shanghai rubber stocks increased by 5,791 tons to 180,600 tons, while No.
20 rubber stocks decreased by 1,019 tons to 34,100 tons
.
It is expected that Southeast Asia will still be in the seasonal incremental stage in January next year, and the future arrival volume will tend to increase, and the spot inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao will continue to increase, which will suppress
the price of rubber.

In the downstream, the operating rate of all-steel tire factories and semi-steel tire factories has decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, and it is expected that the operating rate of domestic tire companies will continue to repair and adjust, but the current new orders of enterprises are still limited, coupled with sufficient inventory of finished products, it is expected that the operating rate will be difficult to increase
significantly.

In the future, the domestic natural rubber supply is shrinking, the downstream tire industry is weakening, automobile consumption is weak, and the policy boost is limited, it is expected that the technical pullback pressure will increase after the continuous rise of natural rubber, and the regional shock will still be maintained
in the medium term.

(Industrial Securities Futures Shi Hai)

Ethylene glycol: price falls

Last week, the ethylene glycol futures market showed a downward trend
.
The EG2305 contract closed at 4,016 yuan, a weekly decline of 4.
81%.

In terms of spot, ethylene glycol prices fell, and as of December 23, the spot price in the East China market was 3,912 yuan
.

On the supply side, as of December 22, ethylene glycol operating rate was 59.
14%, up 3.
14%
month-on-month.
The commissioning of the new plant has led to a gradual increase
in supply pressure.
Shanxi Meijin's 300,000 tons/year plant stopped for some reason in the early stage, and has recently been restarted, and is currently operating at half load; Shanxi Woneng's 300,000 tons/year plant has recently been restarted, and the load is gradually increasing; Hainan Refining & Petrochemical's new 800,000 tons/year ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol plant is scheduled to be put into operation at the end of December; A new 1 million tons/year ethylene glycol plant in Lianyungang was started up on December 3, and the current load is about
80%.

On the demand side, the traditional off-season has arrived, and the polyester operating load has fallen to a low level
.
As of December 23, the polyester operating rate was 69.
27%.

Recently, affected by the epidemic, the short-term shortage of terminal factories has been serious, and the operating load of the weaving industry has declined
again.

In the future, the supply pressure of ethylene glycol has increased significantly, superimposed on the downstream into the seasonal off-season, polyester starting load has dropped to the low level of the year, under the influence of the epidemic, terminal workers are insufficient to work, and the load has decreased significantly
.
It is expected that the fundamentals of ethylene glycol supply and demand remain weak, and prices will continue to weaken
.

(Founder mid-Feng Xiaofen)

Polyolefins: first rise and then suppress

Last week, the polyolefin futures market first rose and then declined, and the price center of gravity shifted
.
The linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) 2305 contract closed at 7965 yuan, a weekly decline of 3.
18%; The polypropylene (PP) 2305 contract closed at 7618 yuan, a weekly decline of 2.
92%.

In terms of spot, the spot price of polyolefin rose first and then declined
.
The mainstream price of LLDPE is 8160~8750 yuan; PP market, North China wire drawing mainstream price 7650~7800 yuan
.

On the supply side, as of December 22, the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) was 80.
53%, a decrease of 0.
64%; The PP operating rate was 86.
33%, an increase of 2.
15%.

In terms of stocks, as of the week of December 23, PE social stocks were 145,100 tons, down 5,000 tons, and PP social stocks were 36,600 tons, up 01,870 tons
.

On the demand side, as of December 23, the operating rate of agricultural film was 48%, down 2 percentage points; The packaging operating rate was 54%, down 2 percentage points
.
Demand for agricultural film is weakening, new orders continue to decline, packaging is in the seasonal off-season, the start of construction weakens slightly, and as the Spring Festival approaches, other industries are also weakening
to varying degrees.

In the future, the load of domestic devices was slightly adjusted, and the overall change was not large
.
Downstream demand orders are still not good, just need to purchase, market trading is light, individual factories have early holiday plans, insufficient support for polyolefin price trends, and it is expected that the medium and long-term high probability of shock is weak
.

(Founder mid-Feng Xiaofen)