Weekly Market Report (1.2-1.6)

Methanol: Trend under pressure

As of the close of trading on January 6, the interperiod spread between methanol 2301 and 2305 contracts was -90 yuan (ton price, the same below).

Methanol futures rose first and then declined, and the spot was in a narrow premium state compared with the main methanol contract 2305, with a basis of 43 yuan
.

On the supply side, as of January 5, the overall operating load of methanol plants was 68.
33%, down 1.
63 percentage points
from the previous month.
Affected by the decline in the load of some plants in the northwest, north China and southwest China, the operating rate of the methanol industry has declined
.
In the later stage, the company has no maintenance plan, and there is a restart plan for some units in mid-January, and the methanol operating rate is basically maintained at about
70%.

In terms of stocks, methanol stocks in coastal areas continued to rise, rising to 785,000 tons, 3.
09 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the overall circulating source is estimated to be about
183,000 tons.

Downstream, demand is expected to weaken
.
The average operating load of coal-to-olefin plants was 73.
42%, a slight decrease of 0.
28 percentage points
from the previous month.
The traditional demand industry maintained a tepid trend, dimethyl ether, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and acetic acid started a narrow increase, and the formaldehyde operating rate declined
.

In the future, the supply and demand of the methanol market are weak, and the holders have the intention to raise prices, while the downstream just needs to purchase cautiously
.
Under the expectation of some downstream factory shutdowns and holidays, methanol consumption will tighten, domestic production and imports will be weak, the market has entered the seasonal accumulation stage, and the pressure is gradually apparent, and methanol futures prices are expected to decline
.

(Founder mid-period, Xia Congcong)

Natural rubber: from rising to falling

Last week, the natural rubber futures market hit a halt and turned back.

As of January 6, Hujiao RU2305 closed down 115 yuan to 12,900 yuan, a weekly decline of 0.
88%; No.
20 rubber NR2304 closed down 140 yuan to 9690 yuan, a weekly decline of 1.
42%.

On the supply side, the supply of domestic rubber has shrunk, and the supply mainly comes from imports
.
The release of raw materials from Southeast Asia will increase, and the price of raw materials in Thailand may continue to fall
.

In terms of stocks, Shanghai rubber stocks rose by 42 tons last week to 186,700 tons, while No.
20 rubber stocks increased by 302 tons to 34,000 tons
.
As Southeast Asia is still in the seasonal incremental stage in the early stage of the Spring Festival, it is expected that the arrival of natural rubber will increase in the future, and the spot inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao will continue to increase
.

In the downstream, the equipment maintenance of tire enterprises increased, superimposed enterprises took early holidays, and the operating rate of all-steel tire factories and semi-steel tire factories decreased
month-on-month and year-on-year.

In the future, the reduction of domestic supply coupled with the growth of imports, the weakening of the downstream tire industry, the weakness of automobile consumption, and the limited policy promotion, the medium-term low regional shock of
natural rubber.

(Industrial Securities Futures Shi Hai)

Soda ash: strong trend

Last week, the soda ash futures market moved strongly
.
As of January 6, SA2305 closed up 42 yuan to 2819 yuan, a weekly increase of 1.
51%, and it is expected that the soda ash market will maintain a regional strong shock finishing trend
.

On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash plants rebounded in stages, reaching 92.
29%, up 0.
83%
from the previous month.
Soda ash production was 616,600 tons, an increase of 05,500 tons from the previous week, and a weekly decrease of 0.
9%.

In terms of inventory, the inventory of soda ash production enterprises showed a short-term reduction trend
.
The total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises was 295,900 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons from the previous month, and a weekly decrease of 10.
25%.

In terms of demand, the domestic soda ash market showed a narrow range of strong shock finishing trend, and the market trading atmosphere was moderate
.
Downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass manufacturers are not profitable, and their enthusiasm for soda ash procurement is not high, and they insist on using and harvesting
.

In terms of consumption, some industries have cold repair plans, downstream demand is reduced, traders ship to maintain stable operation, and downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay
.

In the future, near the Spring Festival, the high price of soda ash is regional shock sorting, the downstream glass industry profits continue to compress, and the procurement is mainly
on-demand procurement.
It is expected that soda ash futures will maintain regional volatility in the future
.

(Industrial Securities Futures Shi Hai)

PTA: Significant decline

Last week, the price of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) futures fell
sharply.
The price of the TA05 contract fell by 214 yuan, or 3.
86%, to close at 5326 yuan
.

In terms of spot, as of January 6, the PTA market price closed down 240 yuan to 5300 yuan
on a weekly basis.

On the supply side, PTA runs were 69.
4% as of Jan.
6, up 5.
8%
weekly.
Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.
2 million tons/year plant has not been restarted, the load of other Yisheng plants is slightly adjusted, the load of Yadong plant is adjusted to 80%, Hengli Petrochemical's 2.
2 million tons/year plant is restored, and the load of Jiatong Energy's 2.
5 million tons/year unit is increased; INEOS Unit 2 has a capacity of 1.
1 million tonnes per year and restarts
as scheduled.

On the demand side, the overall polyester operating rate and production continued to consolidate at a low level
.
As of January 6, polyester operating rates were 67.
5%, up slightly by 1.
5%
weekly.

In terms of terminals, Jiangsu and Zhejiang enterprises entered a state of holiday, the operating rate continued to decline, superimposed terminal enterprises are not strong in pre-holiday stocking willingness, it is expected that PTA prices may weaken, as crude oil prices fall, PTA prices or out of the resonance
downward market.

(Founder mid-Cheng Xuefei)

Polyolefin: Open high and go low

Last week, the polyolefin futures market opened higher and lower
.
The linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) 2305 contract closed at 8031 yuan, a weekly decline of 0.
58%; The polypropylene (PP) 2305 contract closed at 7695 yuan, down 0.
49%
for the week.

In terms of spot, the spot price volatility of polyolefins is weak
.
As of last Friday, the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is 8000~8650 yuan
.

On the supply side, polyolefin supply adjusted
slightly.
As of January 5, the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) was 85.
25%, up 0.
94% from the previous month; The PP operating rate was 85.
59%, up 1.
02%
from the previous month.

On the demand side, the operating rate of agricultural film last week was 44%, with a weekly decline of 2%; The injection molding operating rate was 45%, with a weekly decrease of 1%.

Affected by the lack of work in some polyolefin plants and the early holiday, the demand for polyolefins has weakened
to varying degrees.

In the future, near the Spring Festival, some polyolefin factories have early holiday plans, and the demand side lacks substantial support, and the upstream pull is insufficient
.
It is expected that the future volatility of polyolefins will be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the fluctuation of oil prices on the cost side
.

(Founder mid-Feng Xiaofen)

Ethylene glycol: weak oscillation

Last week, the ethylene glycol futures market was weakly volatile, and the EG2305 contract closed at 4106 yuan, a weekly decline of 0.
73%.

In terms of spot, the ethylene glycol market weakened, and as of January 6, the spot price in the East China market was 3970 yuan
.

On the supply side, as of January 5, ethylene glycol operating rate was 64.
18%, up 1.
31%
month-on-month.
New ethylene glycol plants were put into operation, and the supply pressure gradually increased
.
Anhui Haoyuan's 300,000 tons/year plant was recently restarted; Zhongke Refining & Chemical 500,000 tons/year plant, Sanjiang 150,000 tons/year plant, Rongxin Chemical 400,000 tons/year plant shutdown maintenance
.

On the demand side, the traditional off-season has arrived, and the polyester operating rate has fallen to a low level
.
Disrupted by the epidemic, the short-term terminal factory shortage is serious, and the operating rate of the weaving industry continues to decline
rapidly.
Last week, the polyester operating rate was 67.
3%, down 1.
82% week-on-week, terminal demand continued to weaken during the week, polyester production and sales declined, and inventories recovered
slightly.

In the future, the supply pressure of ethylene glycol increased significantly, while the downstream entered the seasonal off-season, and the operating rate of the terminal industry fell rapidly and was transmitted to the upstream
of the industrial chain.
Ethylene glycol supply and demand fundamentals are weak, dragging down prices
.

(Founder mid-Feng Xiaofen)