Weekly Market Report (11.7-11.11)

Methanol: Shock wash

Last week, as of the close of trading on November 11, the intertemporal spread between methanol 2301 and 2305 contracts was 107 yuan (ton price, the same below).

The spot is in a premium state compared with the main methanol contract 2301, with a basis of 239 yuan
.

On the supply side, as of November 10, the operating rate of the methanol industry was 66.
46%, down 1.
21 percentage points from the previous month and up 3.
51 percentage points
from the same period last year.
Affected by the downward adjustment of the operating load of plants in Northwest, East China and Central China, the operating rate of the methanol industry has continued to decline, and the pressure on the supply side has eased
.

In terms of stocks, methanol stocks in coastal areas recovered narrowly to 552,900 tons, an increase of 05,900 tons from the previous month, down 38.
63%
year-on-year.
The overall negotiable cargo source is estimated to be about 157,000 tons, and the import cargo is expected to arrive at the port in mid-to-late November to be about 540,000 tons
.

In the downstream, the market's resistance to high-priced sources of goods is more obvious, and the actual focus of negotiations has declined
.
Transportation costs have fallen recently, and methanol arrival costs have been slightly lower
.
After entering the seasonal off-season, the downstream demand for methanol shrank, the start of the whole line declined, and the operating rate of coal-to-olefin plants fell to 73.
7%.

In the future, methanol futures showed a trend of rushing back down, and the disk volatility was more severe
.
The upstream coal market trend is under pressure, the market is dominated by just need to purchase, the current cost of methanol is still high, enterprises are facing certain production pressure, and the recent increase in plant shutdowns
.
The demand side is also weak, and the actual transaction volume of methanol is insufficient
.
Under the situation of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the methanol futures market may further reach the 2600 yuan mark in the short term
.

(Founder mid-period, Xia Congcong)

Natural gum: strong adjustment

Last week , the natural rubber futures market showed a strong regional adjustment trend
.
As of November 11, Hujiao RU2301 closed up 65 yuan to 12,600 yuan, a weekly increase of 0.
52%; No.
20 rubber NR23021 closed up 35 yuan to 9595 yuan, a weekly increase of 0.
37%.

On the supply side, the output of glue in Hainan production area has grown steadily; The output of raw materials in Yunnan production area increased
.
With the improvement of the weather, the supply of domestic rubber gradually increased
.
The overall production of glue in Southeast Asian production areas increased, and the price of raw materials in Thailand production areas decreased
.

In terms of stocks, as of November 11, Shanghai rubber stocks increased by 4,617 tons to 321,900 tons; The inventory of No.
20 rubber increased by 504 tons to 44,000 tons, and the inventory of Shanghai rubber and No.
20 rubber showed an increasing trend
.
November is still in the stage of seasonal large volume of natural rubber, and it is expected that the future arrival volume will increase, and the spot inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao will continue to rise
.

In the downstream, the operating rate of all-steel tire factories and semi-steel tire factories increased month-on-month and decreased
year-on-year.
It is expected that the operating rate of domestic tire companies will continue to repair and adjust, but the current new orders of enterprises are still limited, coupled with sufficient inventory of finished products, it is expected that the operating rate will be difficult to increase
significantly.

From the perspective of the future market, domestic and foreign are still in the full cutting period of natural rubber, the supply of Yunnan market is loose, and the supply tension in the Hainan market is eased
.
The downstream tire industry is weak, the automotive industry consumption is insufficient, it is expected that the natural rubber market may rebound technically after it continues to fall, but the rebound space is limited, and the medium term will show a low regional shock finishing trend
.

(Industrial Securities Futures Shi Hai)

PTA: Fall first and then rise

Last week, purified terephthalic acid (PTA) futures prices first fell and then rose
.
The TA01 contract rose by $20, or 0.
37%, to close at $5,416
.

In terms of spot, as of November 11, the supply of goods in the spot market was slightly tight, and the weekly average price of PTA spot closed up 60 yuan to 5760 yuan
.

On the supply side, as of November 10, the PTA industry operating rate was 73.
1%, with a slight weekly recovery of 1.
9%.

Specifically, a new 2.
5 million tonne/year PTA plant in East China is currently being tested; A 1.
2 million mt/year PTA unit in the northwest has recently increased its load to around
95%.

On the demand side, as of November 10, the operating rate of PTA's downstream polyester industry fell to 79.
50%, down 2.
5%
weekly.
In the long term, Shaoxing's 400,000 tons/year polyester plant, which mainly produces polyester filaments and chips
, is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance on December 18.
Due to the high inventory pressure of finished products and weak cash flow, polyester factories are under great pressure and lack
of willingness to raise burdens.
Coupled with the recent terminal new orders continue to shrink, the operating rate of looms and elastic looms has weakened, and will gradually be transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain in the
later stage.

In the future, the overall fundamentals of PTA maintain the trend of supply and demand reduction, but due to cost support and spot prices, PTA prices have certain support, and it is expected that PTA prices will continue to rebound in
the future.

(Founder mid-Cheng Xuefei)

Soda ash: continue to climb

Last week, the soda ash futures market continued to climb
unilaterally.
As of November 11, SA2301 closed up 2 yuan to 2520 yuan, a weekly increase of 0.
08%.

On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash industry equipment reversed the previous week's decline and rebounded
seasonally.
The operating rate of soda ash industry last week was 91.
55%, up 2.
88%
week-on-week.
The output of soda ash manufacturers was 607,900 tons, an increase of 19,200 tons from the previous month, and a weekly increase of 3.
26%.

In terms of inventory, the inventory of soda ash production enterprises has changed from continuous increase to reduction
.
The total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises last week was 314,200 tons, which was 33,400 tons less than on November 4, a weekly decrease of 9.
61%.

Overall, soda ash stocks continue to deteriorate, and it is expected that stocks may remain low in
early December.

In terms of demand, downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass manufacturers are not profitable, and the enthusiasm for the purchase of raw material soda ash is not high, and they insist on using and harvesting
.
Some industries have cold repair plans, which reduce downstream demand, but the impact on soda ash demand is weak
.
Traders ship to maintain stable operation, and downstream procurement is mainly
on-demand.

In the future, the maintenance plan of soda ash manufacturers was implemented, and the price was moderately adjusted
.
The profits of the downstream glass industry continue to compress, and procurement is mainly
on-demand procurement.
It is expected that the soda ash in the future market is more likely to maintain a regional weak shock finishing, and there will be pullback pressure
after continuing to rise.

(Industrial Securities Futures Shi Hai)

Ethylene glycol: first suppressed and then raised

Last week, the ethylene glycol futures market first fell and then rose
.
The EG2301 contract closed at 3936 yuan, a weekly increase of 0.
20%.

In terms of spot, the price of ethylene glycol fell first and then rose, and as of November 11, the spot price in the East China market was 3860 yuan
.

On the supply side, the new ethylene glycol plant was put into operation, and the supply rebounded
slightly.
As of November 10, ethylene glycol operating rate was 56.
39%, with a weekly increase of 1.
13%.

In terms of stocks, the stock of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on November 10 was 850,000 tons, which was 12,000 tons more than on November 7; On November 11~17, the arrival volume of the main port in East China is expected to be 135,200 tons
.

On the demand side, as of November 11, the polyester operating rate was 78.
23%, down 3.
19%
week-on-week.
Due to high inventory pressure and weak cash flow, polyester factories are under greater pressure, and it is expected
to weaken in the later period.
Recently, the new orders of terminals have declined significantly, and they have gradually been transmitted
to the upstream of the industrial chain.

In the future, it is expected that the ethylene glycol market will fluctuate in a short-term low and wide range, and the medium and long-term trend will continue to weaken
.

(Founder mid-Feng Xiaofen)

Polyolefin: shock finishing

Last week, the polyolefin futures market showed a volatile trend
.
The linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) 2301 contract closed at 7835 yuan, a weekly increase of 0.
37%; The polypropylene (PP) 2301 contract closed at 7,744 yuan, a weekly increase of 1.
48%.

In terms of spot, the spot price volatility of polyolefins is weak
.
As of November 11, the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is 7950~8650 yuan; In the PP market, the mainstream price of North China wire drawing products is 7700~7850 yuan
.

On the supply side, polyolefin supply adjusted
slightly.
As of November 10, the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) was 84.
19%, up 1.
37% from the previous month; The PP operating rate was 85.
04%, down 0.
91%
from the previous month.

In terms of inventory, as of November 13, the inventory of major producers was 620,000 tons, 10,000 tons from the previous trading day and 10,000
tons week-on-week.
As of November 11, PE social stocks were 164,940 tons, down 02,100 tons from the previous month; PP social stocks were 32,050 tons, down 02,400 tons
from the previous month.

In terms of demand, as of November 11, the operating rate of the agricultural film industry was 62%, and the operating rate of the plastic knitting industry was 47%, both unchanged
from the previous period.
At present, the demand for downstream agricultural film is nearing its end, and the demand of other industries has weakened slightly due to the impact of the epidemic
.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply is adjusted slightly, demand is expected to weaken, downstream factories are mainly stocked, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the price of polyolefin is not
supported.
It is expected that the polyolefin futures market will show a weak trend of volatility in the long term
.

(Founder mid-Feng Xiaofen)