Weekly Futures Market (9.6-9.10)

Methanol: breakthrough upward

Last week, the methanol futures market turned for the better, and the futures prices continued to break upwards, hitting a new high in the past three years
.

In terms of spot, the methanol market sentiment improved, with prices rising in both coastal and inland areas, and low-priced sources of supply decreased
.

In terms of operating rate, as of September 9, the operating load of the methanol plant was 67.
74%, a decrease of 3.
2 percentage points from the previous month and 0.
39 percentage points from the same period last year
.

In terms of inventory, last week, the methanol inventory in coastal areas was 974,300 tons, an increase of 48,300 tons from the previous month, but it was still lower than the level of 21.
76% in the same period last year.
The overall methanol supply is estimated to be around 227,000 tons
.

Downstream, last week, the average operating load of coal-to-olefin plants was 76.
1%, a decrease of 1.
25 percentage points from the previous month
.

　　On the whole, the uneven distribution of profits in the industrial chain is difficult to maintain in the long-term, and the demand is insufficient to follow up or suppress the trend of methanol.
It is expected that the future price will hover around the 3,000 yuan mark in the short term
.

　　(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)

　　Soda ash: high callback

　　Last week, the domestic soda ash futures price pulled back after hitting a new mid- to long-term high
.

　　In terms of spot, the price of heavy soda ash in various regions remained stable or rose slightly
.

　　In terms of supply, last week, the operating rate of the domestic soda ash industry was 76.
39%, a decrease of 0.
88 percentage points from the previous month; the production of soda ash from the manufacturer was 543,600 tons, a decrease of 6,300 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 1.
15 percentage points
.

　　In terms of inventory, the domestic soda ash factory warehouse was 343,000 tons last week, a month-on-month decrease of 5,300 tons, a decrease of 1.
55%
.

　　In terms of demand, the demand for heavy soda ash was stable last week, and downstream purchases were mostly on-demand
.

　　On the whole, the output of soda ash has dropped slightly, the downstream demand has remained stable, and the factory inventory remains low.
It is expected that the short-term soda ash futures price will remain in the high range
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　Natural rubber: deep fall and shallow rise

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market fell sharply and rose slightly
.
As of the close of September 10, Hujiao RU2201 closed up 115 yuan to 13,435 yuan, an increase of 0.
86%; No.
20 rubber NR2111 closed up 125 yuan to 10595 yuan, an increase of 1.
19%
.

　　In terms of supply, the domestic production areas in Hainan and Yunnan have a suitable climate, and the supply of natural rubber has been increasing steadily, and the pressure is increasing day by day
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of September 10, the stock of Hujiao increased by 6,826 tons to 232,200 tons; the inventory of No.
20 rubber decreased by 4,142 tons to 37,300 tons
.

　　In terms of demand, due to factors such as environmental inspections and equipment overhauls, the operating rate of domestic tire manufacturers has continued to decline
.
As of September 9, the operating rate of all-steel tire companies was 41.
2%, a decrease of 8.
88 percentage points from September 2; the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 39.
48%, a decrease of 15.
04 percentage points from September 2
.

　　In terms of terminals, due to the more serious shortage of chips and the decline in automobile production and sales, the consumption demand for tires is weak, and the demand for natural rubber is also suppressed
.
The current Southeast Asian epidemic has had a greater impact on the chip industry, and it is expected that the shortage of chips will still restrict automobile production
.

　　On the whole, negative factors in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain dominate, and it is expected that the natural rubber market outlook will still be dominated by shocks
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　Polyolefin: strong operation

　　Last week, the linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) futures markets performed strongly
.
Among them, the contract price of L2201 rose 115 yuan to close at 8490 yuan; the contract price of PP2201 rose 99 yuan to close at 8493 yuan
.

　　In terms of spot, as of the week of September 10, mainstream prices in the LLDPE market rose 100-150 yuan to 8,300-8700 yuan
.
The PP spot market has risen slightly by about 100 yuan a week, the mainstream price of drawing materials in North China is 8300-8550 yuan, the mainstream price of drawing materials in East China is 8400-8600 yuan, and the mainstream price of drawing materials in South China is 8400-8630 yuan
.

　　On the supply side, the overall maintenance volume decreased slightly last week
.
As the plant resumes production, pressure on the supply side begins to show up
.

　　In terms of inventory, petrochemical inventories were slightly accumulated, and port inventories remained slightly de-stocked.
Intermediate society stocks were marginally accumulated, and inventory pressures appeared marginal
.

　　On the demand side, the spot market is stable and warm, traders are reporting appropriately high prices, and downstream factories are receiving appropriate orders
.
The spot market transactions are fair .
The start of downstream enterprises remained stable, but the overall upward trend remained unchanged
.
Agricultural film production will gradually enter the peak season in September.
With the increase in holidays, some demand for polyethylene packaging film has been released, boosting spot demand
.

　　In terms of profit, the profit of coal-to-olefins is still low, the profit of coal-to-olefins is severely compressed, and the cost driver is strong
.

　　On the whole, the price fluctuations of polyolefins may increase under the game of weak supply and demand fundamentals and strong cost sides.
It is recommended that participants continue to hold more orders and buy put options to deal with the risk of price decline
.

　　(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)