Weekly Futures Market (8.2-8.6)

Methanol: Weak adjustment

Last week, the methanol futures market broke through the lack of kinetic energy, the disk pressure fell, the price fell below the 2,700 yuan (ton price, the same below) mark support, the center of gravity continued to drop, and further broke the 40-day moving average, the lowest hit 2582 yuan, weekly It fell 4.

In terms of spot, the performance of the domestic market varies from region to region, prices in coastal areas are loosening, and the inland market maintains stable operations
.

In terms of operating rate, as of August 5, the methanol production unit load was 69.

In terms of inventory, methanol inventory in coastal areas rebounded within a narrow range to 863,700 tons, an increase of 58,900 tons from the previous month, but was significantly lower than the level of 38.
01% in the same period last year.
The overall tradable supply is estimated to be around 209,000 tons
.

In the downstream, the average operating load of the coal (methanol) to olefin plant was 77.
63%, an increase of 1.
48 percentage points from the previous month
.

　　On the whole, methanol fundamentals are stable without significant changes, and futures prices are still in the upward channel.
After short-term adjustments, the center of gravity is still expected to stabilize and rebound.
Radicals may consider trying more light storage near the 2,600 yuan mark
.

　　(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)

　　Soda ash: first suppress and then rise

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market fell first and then rose
.

　　On the supply side, last week, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 77.
14%, a month-on-month increase of 0.
1%
.

　　In terms of inventory, last week, the domestic soda ash factory warehouse was basically stable and maintained at a low level
.

　　In terms of demand, last week, downstream demand for heavy soda ash performed well, and corporate shipments were smooth
.

　　Last week, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a video conference on the price of flat glass, requesting glass companies to do everything possible to increase supply.
The short-term glass industry is subject to greater policy disturbances, but the soda ash industry is less affected, and the increase in glass supply will be positive for the demand for soda ash
.

　　In summary, the supply-demand relationship remains on the high side, and short-term soda ash futures prices are expected to rise mainly
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　Natural rubber: slow upward

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market rose slowly
.
As of the close on August 6, Hujiao RU2201 closed up 345 yuan to 14,895 yuan; No.
20 rubber NR2110 closed up 295 yuan to 11425 yuan
.

　　On the supply side, domestic supply has grown steadily and prices have remained stable
.
Among them, Hainan's supply continued to increase, but due to short-term rain disturbance, the price of raw materials stabilized slightly, the price of concentrated milk and dry latex remained the same as the price of full latex, and most of the raw materials flowed to the whole dairy factory; Yunnan was more rainy, and the price remained stable
.
Due to the epidemic, border controls have been strengthened, which may affect the progress of imports
.

　　The epidemic situation in the main production areas of foreign countries in Southeast Asia is still serious, and the supply of natural rubber is uncertain
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of August 6, the stock of Hujiao increased by 4,400 tons to 201,200 tons; the inventory of No.
20 rubber was reduced by 1,037 tons to 46,100 tons, which was at a low level
.

　　On the downstream side, the early operating rate was low, resulting in a decline in tire inventory.
Therefore, tire companies have recently begun to increase operating rates
.
On August 5, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire companies was 62.
68%, an increase of 1.
56 percentage points from July 29; the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 59.
42%, an increase of 2.
09 percentage points from July 29
.

　　Looking at the market outlook, the stock of natural rubber in the domestic bonded zone has been reduced, and domestic demand is still performing well.
It is expected that the short-term natural rubber futures market will continue to rise
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　Polyolefin: narrow fluctuations

　　Last Friday, the overnight LLDPE and PP futures markets fluctuated within a narrow range
.
Among them, the contract price of PP2109 increased by 38 yuan, an increase of 0.
46%
.

　　In terms of spot, last Friday, the spot market prices of LLDPE and PP went up and down mixed, with an overall rise and fall of 20-50 yuan
.
The mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is 8050~8450 yuan; the price of domestic PP drawing material is 8250~8500 yuan
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of August 6, the inventory level of major manufacturers was 710,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared with the previous working day, a drop of 1.
39%
.

　　On the supply side, last week, the loss of domestic PP equipment due to shutdown was about 65,400 tons, a decrease of 3% from last week; the loss of domestic LLDPE equipment maintenance was 48,400 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from last week
.

　　In terms of demand, the rigid downstream demand is still there.
After prices continue to consolidate, the willingness of downstream replenishment has risen, entering the peak consumption season, and the downstream operating rate is steadily rising, and demand is expected to gradually rebound
.

　　In terms of cost, crude oil supply increased, demand maintained, crude oil prices fluctuated widely, and oil-to-olefins low profits were maintained
.
The peak season for thermal coal consumption is approaching, and the contradiction between futures and current basis is more pronounced.
Contract prices in recent months are likely to rise but hardly fall, causing serious compression of coal-to-olefin disk profits, or driving up olefin prices
.

　　On the whole, the contradiction between the supply and demand of polyolefins is not obvious.
The main contradiction in the near future is on the cost side.
The correlation between thermal coal prices and polyolefins has increased significantly, and the price of polyolefins is still expected to rebound in the future
.

　　(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)

　　PTA: shock callback

　　Last week, the domestic PTA futures market fluctuated and corrected
.
As of the close on August 6, TA201 fell 2.
56% throughout the week to close at 5404 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, a 1.
2 million tons/year PTA device in Northwest China was shut down for maintenance, and the restart time is yet to be determined; a 4.
5 million tons/year PTA device in South China began to heat up in the evening on August 4, and it was expected to be on August 6, and the temporary load was not high; Individual PTA large-scale installations did not discharge materials as planned
.
The current social inventory of PTA has fallen by 134,000 tons to 2.
868 million tons
.

　　In terms of demand, on the previous trading day, the production and sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 27.
1%, the production and sales of polyester staple fiber were 132.
28%, and the production and sales of polyester chips were 67.
23%
.
Looking at the next two weeks, the 815,000-ton/year polyester plant is planned to restart, the 350,000-ton/year polyester plant is planned to be overhauled, and another 120,000-ton/year new plant is planned to be put into operation.
The polyester industry is expected to start at 88%.
, The overall demand is stable
.

　　On the cost side, the new crown variant virus epidemic affects demand expectations, and crude oil continues to fall, which weakens PTA cost support
.

　　In general, the main suppliers reduced their contracts in August, and social inventories were greatly reduced, and they held more before TA201
.

　　(Industry Futures Ge Ziyuan)