Weekly Futures Market (8.16-20)

Methanol: Continuation of the rally

Last week, the methanol futures price hit a maximum of 2895 yuan (ton price, the same below), intending to test the pressure level of the 2900 yuan mark, but failed to break through, the disk pressure fell, stepping back on the support near the 20-day moving average to quickly stop falling and reverse
.

In terms of spot prices, both coastal and inland prices have risen
.

In terms of operating rate, as of August 19, the overall operating load of the methanol production plant was 68.
94%, a decrease of 3.
23 percentage points from the previous month
.

In terms of inventory, the methanol inventory in coastal areas was 976,600 tons, an increase of 60,500 tons from the previous month, which was 22.
99% lower than the level of the same period last year.
The overall tradable supply is estimated to be 201,000 tons
.

In the downstream, the load of coal (methanol) to olefins plant was 78.
54%, a decrease of 1.
43 percentage points from the previous month
.

On the whole, changes in methanol fundamentals are limited, but the recent market sentiment and capital disturbances on the disk have increased.
The main contract coincides with a rebound near the upper edge of the upward channel.
After the short-term weakness is adjusted, it is expected to stabilize near the lower 20-day moving average
.

Natural rubber: high impact and resistance

Last week, the natural rubber futures market hit high and met resistance
.

On the supply side, the output of rubber-producing countries remains high
.

In terms of inventory, as of August 20, the stock of Hujiao increased by 4278 tons to 211,300 tons; the inventory of No.
20 rubber increased slightly by 1 ton to 45,600 tons
.

Downstream, on August 19, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire companies was 61.
33%, down 2.
52 percentage points from a week ago; the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 57.
29%, down 2.
91 percentage points from a week ago
.

　　To sum up, although the natural rubber supply season is still facing the impact of climatic uncertainties, the epidemic will still have an adverse impact on the production and sales of tires and automobiles.
There is uncertainty in natural rubber consumption demand.
It is expected that the short-term futures market will continue to regional fluctuations.
The possibility is greater
.

　　Soda ash: shallow adjustment continues to rise

　　Last week, the domestic soda ash futures market continued to rise slightly
.

　　On the supply side, the operating rate of the soda ash industry last week was 77.
67%, an increase of 6 percentage points from the previous week
.

　　In terms of inventory, last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was reduced by 13,600 tons to 331,600 tons, which was a historical low for the same period
.

　　Downstream, the utilization rate of glass production capacity was 87.
53% last week, an increase of 0.
31 percentage points from the previous week
.

　　On the whole, the supply of soda ash will increase steadily
.

 (China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　Polyolefins: rise and fall

　　Last week, the linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) futures markets surged and fell
.

　　In terms of spot, the LLDPE market fell, with mainstream prices ranging from 8,200 to 8,550 yuan; PP mainstream prices at 8,300 to 8,700 yuan
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of August 20, the inventory level of major manufacturers was 700,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the previous week
.

　　On the supply side, last week, the import volume of PE increased slightly from the previous month, and the export volume basically returned to the annual average level.
At the same time, the domestic supply and import of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) are expected to decrease, and the amount of maintenance increased slightly than expected, putting pressure on supply.
Alleviated
.

　　Last week, PP output was 524,500 tons, a decrease of about 55,200 tons from the previous month
.

　　On the demand side, the operating rate of the agricultural film industry continued to rebound slightly, increasing by 3 percentage points last week to 36%
.

　　In terms of costs, the supply of crude oil increased, demand fell from high levels, and the pattern of weak price fluctuations appeared, and oil-to-olefin profits continued to be low; the contradiction between the current basis of thermal coal contracts in recent months was more pronounced, prices remained strong, and coal-to-olefins disk profits remained low
.

　　Comprehensive analysis shows that under the background of little change in inventory, serious profit differentiation, and rigid demand support, the fundamental contradiction is not obvious, and the polyolefin futures market is expected to show a trend of wide fluctuations
.

　　(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)

　　PTA: Weak shock

　　Last week, the domestic purified terephthalic acid (PTA) futures market was weak and volatile
.

　　In terms of supply, a 1.
2 million tons/year PTA unit in Northwest China was shut down on August 5 and planned to restart in early September; a 3.
3 million tons/year PTA unit in East China was shut down on July 30, and the load was about 30% after restart in early August.
; A set of 1.
2 million tons/year PTA plant in East China was unexpectedly shut down on the evening of August 12, and was expected to be released on August 15
.

　　In terms of demand, on the previous trading day, the production and sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 204.
92%, 87.
69% of polyester staple fibers, and 63.
81% of polyester chips
.
Last week, the polyester factory reduced production and the overall production and sales were not good, and most of them maintained rigid demand replenishment
.

　　In terms of cost, there is a certain degree of uncertainty in crude oil demand under the influence of the epidemic.
Crude oil prices have fallen to a low level in the past three months, weakening the support for PTA costs
.

　　In general, PTA destocking is relatively slow, and short-term prices may be weak and fluctuating, but there is not much room below
.

　　(Industry Futures Ge Ziyuan)