Weekly Futures Market (8.12-8.16)

Methanol: stabilizing and picking up

Last week, the methanol futures price hovered around the 2,600 yuan (ton price, the same below) mark, and gradually stabilized and rebounded.
The center of gravity fluctuated higher, and stood firm on the 20-day moving average support.
The highest hit 2,704 yuan, a recent high, and a weekly increase.
2.
01%
.

In terms of spot, the methanol market sentiment improved slightly, and the price moved up steadily
.

In terms of operating rate, as of August 12, the overall operating load of the methanol production plant was 72.
16%, an increase of 2.
43 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 1.
95 percentage points from the same period last year
.

In terms of inventory, methanol inventory in coastal areas continued to rebound in a narrow range to 916,100 tons, an increase of 52,400 tons from the previous month, which was significantly lower than the level of 29.
98% in the same period last year.
The overall tradable supply is estimated to be around 207,000 tons
.

　　In the downstream, the coal-to-olefin operating rate increased to around 80%, an increase of 2.
34 percentage points from the previous month
.

　　On the whole, the methanol market has improved slightly in the near future, there is certain support on the cost side, demand is expected to improve, port inventories are low, and futures prices are still in the upward channel
.

　　(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)

　　Polyolefin: strong operation

　　Last week, the LLDPE and PP futures markets performed strongly
.

　　On the supply side, last week, the PE production capacity involved in the overhaul was 3.
72 million tons/year, and the overhaul loss was 52,500 tons
.

　　In terms of demand, the rigid downstream demand is still there.
After prices continue to consolidate, the willingness of downstream replenishment has increased
.

　　In terms of inventory, the inventory of each link of PE has not changed much, and the inventory of each link of PP has been depleted, and the inventory contradiction has been alleviated to a certain extent
.

　　As of August 13, the inventory of major manufacturers was 680,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with last week
.

　　In terms of cost, crude oil supply increased, demand maintained, crude oil prices fluctuated widely, and oil-to-olefins low profits were maintained
.
In the peak season of thermal coal consumption, the contradiction between the current basis and the current basis is more pronounced, making the profit of coal-to-olefins disks seriously compressed, thus driving the price of olefins upward
.

　　On the whole, the profit of polyolefins in each route is low, and at the same time, PE and PP social stocks have begun to be de-stocked, especially under the expectation of peak demand season, the market outlook still has the motivation to de-stock social stocks
.
From the perspective of trading strategy, low profits, downstream replenishment, midstream destocking expectations, while export profits are open, and high-pressure product prices are firm, polyolefins maintain a more volatile outlook in the future
.

　　(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)

　　Natural rubber: violent shaking

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market fluctuated violently
.
As of the close of August 13, Hujiao RU2201 closed up 130 yuan to 14,755 yuan, an increase of 0.
89%; No.
20 rubber NR2110 closed up 225 yuan to 11585 yuan, an increase of 1.
98%
.

　　In terms of supply, the Hainan production area was opened normally, and the glue was released in large quantities.
The full latex and concentrated milk production plants were enthusiastic about purchasing; the Yunnan production area was affected by drought and powdery mildew, and the cutting was delayed.
The climate after the opening was normal, and it is currently at the peak of rubber production.
During the period, production will increase steadily, but the coming of the typhoon season will adversely affect rubber tapping
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of August 13, the stock of Hujiao increased by 5,914 tons to 207,100 tons; the inventory of No.
20 rubber decreased by 529 tons to 45,600 tons
.

　　Downstream, on August 12, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire companies was 63.
85%, an increase of 1.
17% from August 5; the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 60.
2%, an increase of 0.
78% from August 5
.

　　In terms of terminals, in early and mid-July, 11 key enterprises produced 806,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 33%
.

　　Looking at the market outlook, the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia is still serious, and the production of natural rubber is intensified by the epidemic or adverse weather
.
After August, auto production will enter the peak season, and downstream consumption will gradually improve.
The natural rubber futures market is expected to be volatile
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　Soda ash: a new high

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market continued to rise, with prices hitting new highs
.
As of the close of the market on August 13, SA2201 closed up 74 yuan to 2732 yuan, an increase of 2.
78%, and hit a new mid-to-long-term high of 2748 yuan
.

　　On the supply side, last week, the overall operating rate of the soda ash industry was 71.
67%, a decrease of 5.
47% from the previous month
.
The weekly output of soda ash was 510,000 tons, a decrease of 37,300 tons from the previous month
.
In addition to planned maintenance in August, the factory limited electricity, environmental protection and other factors, the operating rate was low
.

　　In terms of inventory, last week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash companies was 345,200 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from the previous month
.
The number of soda ash inventory days increased to 56 days
.

　　In terms of demand, due to the impact of the epidemic, glass production and sales have weakened.
However, because glass companies generally have better profits, the overall purchasing mentality is positive
.
This month, the production of photovoltaic glass will be concentrated, and the amount of heavy alkali is expected to increase
.
As the price of soda ash rises, downstream costs increase, while downstream production and sales rates are low, and inventories increase, which has an impact on plant openings
.

　　In terms of glass supply, last week, a total of 294 domestic glass production lines were eliminated after excluding zombie production lines, of which 264 were in production and 30 were discontinued for cold repair
.
The operating rate of float glass enterprises was 89.
8%, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.
4%
.

　　In summary, the tight supply pattern of soda ash has not changed.
The soda ash futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the mid-term, and the impact of the epidemic on downstream production needs to be paid attention to in the later period
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　PTA: shock callback

　　Last week, the PTA futures market fluctuated and corrected
.
As of the close on August 13, TA201 fell 40 yuan throughout the week to close at 5266 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, a 1.
2-million-ton/year PTA unit in East China was unexpectedly shut down on the evening of August 12 and was scheduled for production on August 15; a 1.
2-million-ton/year PTA unit in East China was shut down on July 30 and was scheduled to be scheduled for August 15 ; A set of 325,000 tons/year plant in Central China was shut down on August 14 and restarted on August 15
.
PTA's main suppliers reduced the supply of the August contract, indirectly supporting the high processing fees and destocking status
.

　　In terms of demand, the polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang promoted sales on the previous trading day, and demand rebounded.
The production and sales of polyester filaments were 154.
8%, the production and sales of polyester staple fibers were 70.
76%, and the production and sales of polyester chips were 43.
85%
.
Some downstream polyester factories plan to cut production, and follow-up needs to pay attention to the implementation of actual production cuts
.
At present, the downstream polyester is gradually entering the peak demand season, and the average start load of polyester in September may be higher than the average in August
.

　　In terms of cost, crude oil demand is expected to be uncertain, and crude oil prices fluctuate within a narrow range, which has weakened PTA cost support compared with the previous period
.

　　In general, under the expectations of the peak season of downstream demand, social inventories continue to decline, and short-term TA201 orders can still be held
.

　　(Industry Futures Ge Ziyuan)