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Methanol: move up the interval
Methanol: Move the interval up Methanol: Move up the intervalLast week, the methanol futures market stabilized and rebounded
In terms of spot, the methanol spot atmosphere is sluggish, and the price is weak.
In terms of operating rate, as of December 23, the overall operating load of the methanol plant was 68.
In terms of port inventory, methanol inventory in coastal areas was 671,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 60,700 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 40.
In the downstream, although the spot price of methanol has fallen, the profits of downstream production are still limited and some of them are facing losses.
On the whole, the upstream coal market is operating weakly and steadily, with limited changes on the cost side, and weak support
(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)
Natural rubber: first rise and then fall
Natural rubber: first rise and then suppress natural rubber: first rise and then suppressLast week, the natural rubber futures market surpassed and fell back due to the negative influence of the supply-demand relationship
In terms of supply, following the complete shutdown in the Yunnan production area in November, the Hainan production area will also be shut down this month.
In Southeast Asia, Vietnam's output is expected to shrink significantly in the future and enter the off-season for rubber tapping
In terms of inventory, on December 24, the stock of Hujiao increased by 6,705 tons to 228,055 tons; the inventory of No.
Downstream, as of December 23, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires was 63.
To sum up, due to the steady consumption of tires and the constraints of the epidemic, the trend of natural rubber futures will weaken, but due to the supply uncertainty caused by climate change this winter, natural rubber futures have limited room for decline
(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)
Soda Ash: Weak finishing
Soda Ash: Weak finishing Soda Ash: Weak finishingLast week, the regional weakness of the soda ash futures market fluctuated
On the supply side, last week, the weighted average operating rate of soda ash manufacturers was 80.
In terms of inventory, soda ash production enterprises' inventory accumulation has slowed down, and inventory levels have hit a record high
In terms of consumer demand, the downstream industries such as soda ash, sodium bicarbonate, printing and dyeing are not operating well, and the demand for soda ash has shrunk; the market prices of float glass and photovoltaic glass in the downstream of heavy soda are weak, and glass manufacturers are not reducing the price of soda ash.
Due to the high overall inventory level of soda ash manufacturers, shipment resistance still exists, and manufacturers are more flexible in bargaining for shipments
.
Mid- and downstream glass manufacturers still occupy an active position, while soda ash manufacturers are only in a passive position.
Soda ash is still in a buyer's market pattern with oversupply, which has led to weak and volatile soda ash prices
.
On the whole, supply and demand are relatively short, and soda ash futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level and regional weaknesses
.
(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)
Polyolefin: strong operation
Polyolefin: Stronger operation Polyolefin: Stronger operation Last week, linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) prices fluctuated strongly
.
Among them, the L2205 contract rose 167 yuan to close at 8598 yuan; the PP2205 contract rose 95 yuan to close at 8232 yuan
.
In terms of spot, as of the week of December 24, the price of LLDPE spot market fluctuated weakly, with three regions falling 50-150 yuan, and the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE was 8600-8950 yuan
.
As of the week of December 24, the PP spot market price was narrowed.
The mainstream price of drawing materials in North China was 8050-8250 yuan, the mainstream prices of drawing materials in East China were 8150-8380 yuan, and the mainstream prices of drawing materials in South China were 8230-8400 yuan
.
On the supply side, the weekly operating rate of PE was 87.
84%, and the weekly operating rate of PP was 88.
16%
.
In terms of inventory, on December 24, petrochemical stocks of 595,000 tons were removed from the warehouse within a day, and some petrochemical manufacturers lowered their ex-factory prices
.
In terms of social inventory, PE/PP are de-stocked on a weekly basis.
As the double festival approaches, downstream companies have begun to replenish their stocks
.
In terms of demand, as of the week of December 24, PP downstream companies' agricultural film operating rate was 50%, the demand for agricultural film slowed down, the demand for greenhouse film gradually ended, the order follow-up was limited, the demand for plastic film followed up slowly, and the overall industry operation trend was weakening
.
On the whole, short-term prices may be relatively strong, and the double festival is approaching, downstream companies have the intention of stocking purchases, downstream companies' raw material inventories increase slightly, and social inventories continue to be de-stocked
.
However, the supply-side operating rate continues to rise, demand is weakening, and the basis is returning to the background, the structural market for polyolefins is expected to have a limited upward trend
.
The pressure on the PP supply side is greater than that of LLDPE, and arbitrage is recommended to continue to hold the long-LLDPE-empty PP strategy
.
(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)