Weekly Futures Market (12.13-12.17)

Methanol: the center of gravity rises

Last week, the methanol futures market stabilized in stages, the center of gravity fluctuated higher, supported by the short-term moving average, and further broke the pressure of the previous high point, setting a new high in the past one month

In terms of spot, methanol spot has not followed the rise actively, and the center of gravity in coastal areas has moved up within a narrow range

In terms of operating rate, as of December 16, the overall operating load of the methanol plant was 66.

In terms of port inventory, methanol inventory in coastal areas rebounded within a narrow range to 731,700 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous month, which was significantly lower than the level of 31.

On the downstream side, the olefin plant was operating smoothly, and the overall operating rate rose to 74.

On the whole, inventory pressure is not great, coupled with the slow recovery of installations, the fundamentals have improved slightly, methanol futures prices have rebounded slightly, the pressure level of 2700-2750 yuan is concerned from the top, and more orders can be moderately reduced on rallies

(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)

Natural rubber: weak and fluctuating

Last week, the natural rubber futures market was weak and volatile in the region

In terms of supply, the domestic production area in Hainan will also be shut down this month after the Yunnan production area ceased production in November

In Southeast Asia, rainfall and weather will affect the production of natural rubber, but the overall impact is not significant

In terms of inventory, on December 17, the stock of Hujiao increased by 5,489 tons to 221,400 tons; the inventory of No.

Downstream, as of December 16, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire companies was 63%, down 1.

In summary, affected by the epidemic, the natural rubber futures market tends to be weak, but the La Niña phenomenon this winter has made supply uncertain, and it is expected that the room for natural rubber futures prices to fall in the later period is also limited

(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

Polyolefin: price rebound

Last week, linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) prices rebounded

In terms of spot, in the week of December 17, the LLDPE spot market fluctuated within a narrow range, and the prices in various regions rose by 50-100 yuan.

　　On the supply side, last week, the weekly operating rate of PE was 86.

　　In terms of inventory, on December 17, the petrochemical inventory was 630,000 tons and will continue to go to the warehouse within days

　　In terms of demand, as of the week of December 17, the operating rate of the agricultural film industry was 52%, and the weekly rate continued to decrease by 2 percentage points; the demand for greenhouse film gradually ended, and dealers were less motivated to place orders; demand for mulch film started slowly, and the industry as a whole started.
Falling trend
.
The operating rate of the PP downstream plastic woven industry was 53%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of the biaxially oriented polypropylene film industry was 61.
94%, a decrease of 3.
03 percentage points
.

　　On the whole, the recent supply has decreased slightly, and downstream companies have taken appropriate replenishment actions, boosting market sentiment, and traders' inventories have been slightly destocked.
It is expected that the short-term polyolefin futures market will rebound.
It is recommended that a moderate number of orders be placed
.

　　(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)

　　Soda ash: rebound in case of support

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market rebounded slightly
.
As of the close of last Friday, SA2205 closed up 47 yuan to 2,374 yuan
.

　　On the supply side, last week, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.
54%, a decrease of 0.
65 percentage points from the previous month; the output of soda ash was 587,400 tons, a decrease of 0.
78%
.

　　In terms of inventory, last week, the soda ash inventory showed an increasing trend, but the increase was reduced.
The total inventory was 1.
6089 million tons, an increase of 141,000 tons from the previous month; the social inventory decreased by about 10,000 tons, a small decrease
.

　　In terms of consumer demand, the mid- and downstream demand performance is tepid, and replenishment is based on appropriate prices
.
Traders have weaker shipments and mainly purchase on-demand
.
Although the start-up of mid- and downstream enterprises is relatively stable, the shipment situation of enterprises has not improved significantly, and product inventories of some enterprises continue to increase, which affects enterprises' willingness to purchase raw soda ash
.

　　From the market point of view, the price of light soda ash has fallen; the heavy soda ash market has a single discussion or no pricing model for the time being
.

　　On the whole, there are still variables in the supply of soda ash before the end of the year, and there is a rigid replenishment demand in the middle and lower reaches.
It is expected that the soda ash futures market will continue to undergo low-level regional shocks
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)