Weekly Futures Market (11.15-11.19)

Methanol: Hovering and finishing

Last week, the operating range of the methanol futures market shifted downward, and the trend was slightly sluggish.

In terms of spot, the domestic methanol spot market is showing a tepid trend, the price center of gravity is weak and loose, and the supply of low-priced goods is gradually increasing

In terms of operating rate, as of November 18, the operating load of the overall methanol plant was 64.

In terms of inventory, methanol inventory in coastal areas increased by 49,000 tons to 901,000 tons, but it was still significantly lower than the level of the same period last year by 27.

On the downstream side, after the methanol price adjustment, the profit situation of downstream companies improved slightly, but there was no significant increase in methanol consumption

On the whole, the supply and demand side has not changed much.

(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)

Natural rubber: shock upward

Last week, the natural rubber futures market continued to fluctuate upward

In terms of supply, the main producing areas of Southeast Asia were affected by unfavorable weather such as continuous rainfall and intermittent typhoons, and the supply of natural rubber was slightly reduced compared with the previous period

In terms of inventory, as of November 19, Hujiao's inventory has been significantly reduced by 127,800 tons to 179,500 tons; the inventory of No.

Downstream, as of November 18, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire companies was 65.

On the whole, under the influence of "La Nina", there is uncertainty in winter supply.

(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

Soda ash: a slight rebound

Last week, the soda ash futures market rebounded slightly

In terms of supply, last week, the overall operating rate of the domestic soda ash industry was 75.

In terms of inventory, last week, the social inventory of domestic soda ash was reduced by 96,000 tons, and inventory pressure has eased

　　In terms of demand, the start of the mid- and downstream devices was relatively stable, but the terminal demand was weak, and the purchasing sentiment was not high, and the raw material inventory was mainly consumed

　　On the whole, the output of soda ash has increased, the downstream consumption demand has been stable, and the factory warehouse has gradually increased

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　Polyolefin: weak and oscillating

　　Last week, linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) prices fluctuated weakly
.
As of the close of last Friday, the contract price of L2201 fell 191 yuan to close at 8825 yuan; the contract price of PP2201 fell 310 yuan to close at 8363 yuan
.

　　On the supply side, the pace of new production capacity slowed down last week
.
There are currently limited maintenance devices, and some short-term shutdown devices are planned to be restarted.
It is expected that the supply of polyolefins will continue to increase slightly in the near future
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of November 18, petrochemical companies had 680,000 tons of inventories, which continued to be de-stocked slightly; port inventories continued to decrease marginally
.
Among them, the PE social inventory is marginally exhausted, and the PP social inventory is slightly de-stocked
.

　　In terms of demand, as of November 18, the operating rates of PE and PP downstream companies have slightly diverged
.
Among them, the operating rate of the agricultural film industry was 60%, a weekly decrease of 2%; the operating rate of the injection molding industry was 57%, unchanged; the operating rate of the plastic woven industry was 52%, a weekly increase of 2%
.
The downstream demand for PP continued to be stable, and the downstream demand for PE was mainly purchased.
The peak season for agricultural film demand began to fade
.
The downstream power curtailment has recently been relaxed, and the impact of the limited operating rate of its terminal factories has been reduced.
However, the north is affected by the traditional environmental protection during the heating season and the Winter Olympics, and the impact of the production limit still exists
.

　　In terms of profit, the profitability of olefins produced by various routes is still unsatisfactory, and the industry is in a low economic cycle
.

　　On the whole, the PP futures market has continued to fall due to weak cost drivers and slightly weak supply and demand.
At this stage, the negative factors are still fermenting
.
In the off-season of demand and low profit environment, it is expected that the polyolefin futures market will continue to fluctuate and run weakly in the near future
.

　　(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)