Weekly Futures Market (10.25-10.29)

Methanol: expected to stabilize

Last week, the methanol futures market continued its previous downtrend, with the center of gravity constantly looking downwards for support

In terms of spot, the methanol spot market has followed the decline, and the supply of low-priced goods has gradually increased

In terms of operating rate, as of the end of October, the operating load of the overall methanol plant was 65.

Port inventory, methanol inventory in coastal areas continued to fall to 922,500 tons, a month-on-month drop of 37,500 tons, which was still significantly lower than the level of 31.

On the downstream side, the downstream market demand performance is not good, especially the emerging demand coal-to-olefin industry continues to decline, only 64.

On the whole, methanol cost guidance is relatively short, coupled with the release of market risk aversion, the disk continues to fall, and the short-term center of gravity is weak.

(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)

Polyolefin: unilateral decline

Last week, linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) prices were dominated by unilateral declines

　　In terms of spot, as of the close of October 29, the market price of LLDPE in various districts has fallen by 250-450 yuan, and the mainstream price is 8900-9300 yuan; the market price of PP in each district has fallen by 200-450 yuan, and the mainstream price is 8450-9000 yuan

　　On the supply side, as of October 29, PE weekly maintenance losses amounted to approximately 55,000 tons, an increase of 6,200 tons from last week; PP weekly maintenance losses amounted to approximately 81,600 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from last week

　　In terms of inventory, the social inventory of PE and PP has been de-stocked significantly, and the inventory pressure has been reduced

　　In terms of demand, it is currently in the peak season of traditional greenhouse film demand.

　　In terms of profit, the profits of coal-to-olefins and methanol-to-olefins continued to rebound slightly, but the profits of oil-to-olefins declined, and the profits of olefins in all routes were not ideal, and low valuations continued to appear

　　Looking at the market outlook, under the background of limited supply margins, rising demand margins, and increasing cost-driven pressures, the spot market price of polyolefins has stabilized.

　　(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)

　　Natural rubber: weak finishing

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market was weakened

　　In terms of supply, Southeast Asia and the domestic Qiongdian production area are in the peak season for rubber tapping, and the output of natural rubber is increasing seasonally

　　In terms of inventory, as of the close of October 29, Hujiao stocks increased by 15,800 tons to 285,200 tons; No.

　　In terms of demand, as of October 28, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire companies was 58.
43%, down 2.
06% from October 21; the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 54.
87%, down 1.
39% from October 21
.

　　In terms of terminals, at the end of the year, the terminal automobile industry lacks policy support, and the shortage of important raw materials such as chips is difficult to alleviate.
Automobile production and sales are also difficult to turn into an increase.
The consumer demand for tires will also stabilize and weaken
.

　　In summary, the seasonal growth of supply, coupled with the constraints of weak consumer demand, is expected that the natural rubber futures market will remain weak and volatile
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　Soda ash: shock weakens

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market fluctuated and weakened
.
As of the close on October 29, SA2201 closed down 132 yuan to 2669 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, since October, the operating rate of soda ash enterprises has remained relatively high at 73% to 76%
.
The output of soda ash last week was 544,600 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from the previous month
.

　　In terms of inventory, the soda ash inventory was 358,500 tons last weekend, an increase of 22,200 tons from the previous month
.

　　In terms of demand, photovoltaic glass was in a period of capacity expansion and float glass production increased steadily, which brought incremental demand for soda ash, but the real estate market was expected to weaken, resulting in weaker float glass demand, leading to a large accumulation of float glass factories and warehouses
.
The profit of glass production has declined, and float glass is close to the cost line.
Therefore, the probability of production reduction or cold repair in the later period of production enterprises increases
.
Since float glass is the main downstream product of soda ash, if the output of float glass is reduced, even if the increase in photovoltaic glass is large, the demand for soda ash consumption will not increase
.

　　Looking at the market outlook, with the gradual digestion of the early profits, the price of soda ash has fallen close to the cost, but the wait-and-see sentiment of terminal consumer companies may have a negative impact on the soda ash market
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)