Weekly Futures Market (10.18-10.22)

Methanol: Weak adjustment

Last week, the coal chemical sector suffered a setback, the methanol futures market trend changed, the center of gravity fell from a high level, and it entered an adjustment phase.

In terms of spot, dragged down by the drop in futures, the domestic methanol spot market's sentiment has cooled, the price center has loosened, and both the coastal and inland markets have fallen

In terms of operating rate, as of October 21, the operating load of the overall methanol plant was 65.

In terms of ports, methanol inventory in coastal areas fell within a narrow range to 960,000 tons, a month-on-month drop of 116,500 tons, which was still significantly lower than the same period last year.

On the downstream side, the peak season is coming to an end, and methanol demand is not busy during the peak season, and follow-up is weak

On the whole, the cost side continues to loosen, the upward driving force of the methanol market fades, facing two weak situations of supply and demand, short-term emotional disturbances increase, market awareness of risk aversion has increased, methanol futures prices continue to adjust, and empty orders have been entered and held with caution.

(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)

Polyolefin: Mainly decline

Last week, the linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) markets were dominated by declines

　　In terms of spot, as of October 22, the mainstream price of LLDPE fell 250-450 yuan to 9250-9800 yuan; the mainstream price of PP in various districts fell 400-650 yuan to 9050-9700 yuan

　　On the supply side, from the perspective of the weekly operating rates of PE and PP, they have remained at this year's low level, and the supply side is still limited

　　In terms of inventory, as of the week of October 22, the main manufacturers’ inventory was 79 tons, with a weekly accumulation of 5,000 tons

　　In terms of demand, the operating rate of the agricultural film industry continued to rise slowly, with little change in weekly demand data; the operating rate of BOPP rebounded slightly, but it was still lower than the historical average

　　In terms of profit, the profits of coal-to-olefins and methanol-to-olefins strengthened slightly, cost-driven pressures weakened, and pressures on polyolefins’ low valuations eased

　　Looking at the market outlook, the marginal supply of polyolefins has decreased.

　　(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)

　　Natural rubber: high and fall

　　Last week, the domestic natural rubber futures market rose and fell

　　In terms of supply, after entering the fourth quarter, the main producing areas in Southeast Asia have gradually entered the peak season for rubber tapping.

　　From a domestic perspective, the typhoon struck, and it is not ruled out that the main natural rubber producing areas of Hainan suffered serious damage to the gum trees, which will have a serious impact on the domestic natural rubber supply

　　In terms of inventory, on October 22, the stock of Hujiao increased by 18,700 tons to 269,400 tons; the inventory of No.
20 rubber decreased by 514 tons to 35,800 tons
.

　　On the supply side, as of October 21, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire companies was 60.
49%, an increase of 1.
96% from October 14; the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 56.
26%, an increase of 1.
74% from October 14
.
Although it has now entered the traditional "Silver Ten" consumption season for tires and automobiles, due to the impact of weak domestic sales and heavy tire inventory pressure, it may be difficult to increase the operating rate of tire plants in the short term
.

　　In summary, due to supply uncertainties and weak consumer demand, it is expected that the short-term natural rubber futures market will be weakened
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　Soda ash: a deep fall

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market continued its unilateral deep decline
.
As of the close of last Friday, SA2201 closed down 124 yuan to 3010 yuan
.

　　In terms of spot, the price of heavy soda in Northeast China is 3850 yuan; the price of heavy soda in North China is 3800 yuan; the price of heavy soda in East China is 3650 yuan; the price of heavy soda in Central China is 3650 yuan; the price of heavy soda in South China is 3800 yuan; The price of heavy alkali is 3900 yuan; the price of heavy alkali in Northwest China is 3,500 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, the overall operating rate of soda ash enterprises last week was 75.
33%, which was increased by 1.
34% from the previous month, which was still at a relatively high level
.

　　In terms of inventory, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers last week was more than 336,300 tons, an increase of 43,300 tons from the previous month
.
The current available days of soda ash inventory is 2.
7 days, which is at a low level during the year, and has strong support for spot and futures prices
.

　　In terms of demand, downstream demand for heavy soda ash performed well, the spot price of float glass fell, and the operating rate remained high
.
As the spot price of soda ash rises and the cost of downstream industries increases, the purchase of raw materials is expected to slow down
.

　　On the whole, the fundamentals of soda ash have gradually turned negative, soda ash production has increased, downstream consumer demand has remained stable, and factories and warehouses have reached new lows
.
With the gradual digestion of early profits, the continuous surge in soda ash prices has led to rising downstream costs.
The wait-and-see sentiment of end consumer companies may have a negative impact on the soda ash market.
In addition, there are more early long profits and demand for liquidation and exit.
It is expected that short-term soda ash futures prices will increase.
Continue to fall back
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)