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Aluminum prices remained high and volatile
yesterday.
The Fed's dovish than expected comments led to a weaker dollar, supporting the metals market, intraday spot trading improved compared with the previous period, European natural gas prices retreated, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine eased, this price recommendation is not to chase higher
as needed.
In terms of news, Guangxi Baise gradually lifted community control, transportation gradually returned to normal, and the local and surrounding electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants were expected to stop production due to difficulties in the transportation of raw materials
.
The overseas European energy crisis is still fermenting, and production cuts may expand
again due to the greater uncertainty of overseas natural gas supply before the spring season in March.
In terms of domestic fundamentals, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places have begun to resume production, and the process of resumption of production is uneven
.
In terms of consumption, downstream work has resumed one after another, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact
of the epidemic and environmental protection control in the north on the downstream resumption of work.
In terms of inventory, the accumulation rate slowed down during the week, and as seasonal consumption picks up, it is necessary to pay attention to the inflection point
of inventory.
On February 14, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 994,000 tons, 45,000 tons
more than last Thursday.
LME aluminum inventories fell by 3,025 tonnes from the previous session to 857,000 tonnes
on Feb.
16.
In terms of prices, the threat of the energy crisis to overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue to the beginning of spring, and with the resumption of construction in various places after the holiday, driven by real estate stock construction, completion and infrastructure projects, consumption can be expected to pick up, but it is necessary to be wary of the fluctuation of market expectations for interest rate hikes in the late first quarter, and it is recommended to unilaterally treat
the idea of bargain hunting and long.