Weak operation of rubber prices is likely to maintain a range-bound trend

On the supply side, the recent decrease in rainfall in Southeast Asia and Hainan has weakened the impact on rubber tapping, Yunnan has good phenological conditions and normal rubber tapping, and the main producing areas of the world are still in the peak period of seasonal rubber production, and the loose supply in the peak season is obvious
.

On the demand side, since the National Day holiday, some tire companies have been overhauled, and the start needs to be gradually restored, the current operating rate is still at a low level, and the tire inventory is high, the supply pressure is large, and the order volume and the purchase demand for sky rubber continue to be weak
.

On the import and inventory side, the arrival of new rubber has gradually increased, and the domestic inventory has maintained an accumulated state
.
In terms of alternative rubber, cis-butadiene rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber have continued to decline weakly so far this month, and the current price is similar to natural rubber, which will promote the procurement demand of natural rubber to a certain extent, but due to the decline in tire factory starts, the downstream demand for raw rubber continues to be weak
.

On the whole, concerns about the prospects of the later economy will continue to affect the trend of futures, and the multi-point distribution of public health events, poor industrial demand and oversupply of raw rubber will lead to a weak trend of tianjiao; China's economic tone is stable and progressive, and the domestic rubber production area will start seasonal cutting at the end of next month, which will have some support
for the tianjiao market.
In summary, it is expected that natural rubber will still maintain a range shock trend with a high probability, mainly short-term weakness
.