Weak market demand PVC weakened overall

On the supply side, high maintenance and multiple accidents have limited the short-term increase in the utilization rate of stock capacity, and the PVC plant with long-term shutdown reached 1.
05 million tons/year, 450,000 tons/year more than last year
.
Long-term shutdown devices are difficult to recover in the short term, and the scale of autumn maintenance is not expected to be small in the context of emphasizing safe production, according to the current disclosure, there are still more equipment maintenance in October, and the pressure on the supply side is not large
.
However, the more the fourth quarter goes on, the maintenance of the equipment will gradually decrease, and the utilization rate of the existing capacity may show a slight increase
.

On the demand side, real estate demand slowed down in the second half of the year, but overall resilience remained
.
From January to September, the cumulative increase in real estate development investment nationwide was 10.
5% year-on-year, and the growth rate of real estate investment after excluding land acquisition fees was 6.
6%; From January to September, the national real estate development investment was 9.
8 trillion yuan, a cumulative increase of 10.
5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that from January to August; The growth rate of real estate development investment remained high
.
From January to September, the area of new housing starts was 165706 million square meters, a cumulative increase of 8.
6% year-on-year, down 0.
3 percentage points from January to August; the construction area of housing was 834201 million square meters, an increase of 8.
7%, and the growth rate fell by 0.
1 percentage points; the completed area of housing was 467.
48 million square meters, down 8.
6%, a decrease of 1.
4 percentage points; the growth rate of new housing starts remained high
.
PVC demand fulfillment generally lags behind the new start of real estate construction for about 7 months, according to the current housing starts, the demand for PVC in real estate in the fourth quarter is still supported
.
From January to September, the sales area of commercial housing was 119178 million square meters, down 0.
1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.
5 percentage points from January to August; the sales area of commercial housing fell
slightly.
In the second half of the year, as the favorable effect of shed reform on real estate sales gradually weakened, it is expected that the sales area of commercial housing will still maintain a slight decline
in the second half of the year.

Downstream pipe profile enterprises have obvious seasonality, according to the historical law and the current operating rate, downstream start is still at a high level within the year, short-term support
.
The fourth quarter will gradually enter the seasonal decline channel
.

The probability of continued weakness in the consumption of soft products in the second half of the year is small
.
The total retail sales of consumer goods showed an accelerated downward trend in the first half of this year, indicating that domestic consumption is indeed weak
.
In addition, the sharp decline in exports this year has also dragged down the demand
for PVC soft products used in consumer goods.

In terms of inventory, the early inventory was significantly higher year-on-year, and the peak season demand in the autumn of the third quarter brought a certain downstream replenishment cycle, and the inventory dematerialization speed was better
.
After the holiday, the domestic PVC market atmosphere was calm, the price fluctuated in a narrow range, the market arrived generally, the terminal rigidly replenished, and the inventory fell
slightly again.
After the end of the maintenance in November and the release of new production capacity, the inventory is expected to continue to remain destocked
.

The short-term supply pressure is not large, the demand is resilient, and the fundamentals are not weak; Under the background that PVC profit and double-ton price spread remain at a good level, small fluctuations in calcium carbide and caustic soda are expected to have limited impact on PVC prices; However, due to the influence of macro, PVC weakened overall
.
There is not much space below the short-term disk, and the price of PVC should not be overly weak; In the context of not weak fundamentals, you can try to
take advantage of the dip.
The discount range of the futures price rapidly expands or limits the decline, and there is a need for
basis repair in the later stage.