Weak market demand limits the upside of Shanghai rubber

Weather in the production area, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in November 2021 was 12.
5, an increase of 5.
8 month-on-month, and the impact of La Niña increased
again.
From December to January, La Niña gas peaks, which may continue to stimulate production
.

The demand side is bearish digestion, the symptoms of the new variant Omicron are mild, and oil prices continue to rebound
.
Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory continued to decline, and affected by international shipping, the inflection point may continue to be postponed backwards, and there is some support
in inventory.

At present, the domestic Yunnan production area has stopped cutting, and the eastern Hainan production area may stop cutting in mid-to-late December; Rainfall has recently decreased significantly in southern Thailand and central Vietnam, and raw material output is expected to increase
.

Due to the surge in freight rates in Southeast Asia, there is an expectation that the December shipping schedule will continue to be delayed, and the accumulation of natural rubber in Qingdao is expected to continue to be delayed
.
The significant increase in sea freight on European and American routes will also make China's tire export pressure prominent
.
Last week, the operating rate of domestic tire factories fell slightly month-on-month, because the order situation was not optimistic, the pressure on finished product inventory increased, the foreign trade orders of tire factories in December were expected to shrink, and the replacement of domestic terminals was gradually coming to an end, coupled with the obvious increase in factory raw material inventory, tire factories may slow down the procurement process of tianjiao
.
On the market, the RU2205 contract increased its position and closed lower, focusing on the support around 14160 in the short term
.

In terms of news:

1.
According to the latest data from QinRex, the total number of tires imported in the United States in the first 10 months of 2021 was 227.
49 million, an increase of 19%
year-on-year.
Among them, the import of passenger car tires increased by 14% year-on-year to 129.
17 million units; Truck and bus tire imports increased by 31% year-on-year to 42.
73 million; Aircraft tires increased by 28% year-on-year to 210,000; Motorcycle tires increased by 21% year-on-year to 3.
18 million; Bicycle tires increased by 34% year-on-year to 11.
23 million
.

2.
According to the latest data from QinRex, Thailand's natural rubber production in the first three quarters of 2021 reached 3.
62 million tons, an increase of 12.
5%
from 3.
21 million tons in the same period last year.
In terms of specific varieties, the output of tobacco flake gum increased by 11.
9% year-on-year; Standard rubber increased by 13.
4% year-on-year; latex increased by 14% year-on-year; Mixed rubber increased by 10.
9%
year-on-year.