Weak fundamentals PVC main rebound blocked

News: In December 2019, the output of domestic PVC production enterprises was 1.
71536 million tons, an increase of 3.
45% from the previous month and 2.
98% over the same period last year; In December, the equipment maintenance plan of production enterprises was significantly reduced, and although some enterprises were affected by the policy to reduce the load, the output of new equipment began to be released, and the output reached a record high during the year and in the past
.
From January to December 2019, the cumulative output was 19.
83786 million tons, an increase of 4.
28%
over last year.
As of December, domestic PVC production capacity reached 24.
78 million tons, a significant increase of nearly 7%
over last year.

Spot market: the price of PVC market in Shanghai was reduced, and the mainstream quotation of calcium carbide five-type material was 6750-6890 yuan / ton
.
Sanlian / Yihua 6750 yuan / ton, Tianye 6890 yuan / ton, ethylene method Dagu Qilu material 1000 model sent to 7050-7150 yuan / ton for negotiation, East China ethylene method enterprise price in 7350 yuan / ton delivery
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts report 0 lots, intraday -0 lots
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 167206 lots, +2727 lots, short positions are 171739 lots, +4122 lots, net positions are -4533 lots, net short increases
.

Summary: Fundamentally, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises this week was 82.
87%, an increase of 1.
92% from last week and 1.
40% year-on-year; PVC production enterprises maintenance loss was 27,090 tons, down 0.
82 from the previous month, and the maintenance loss in December was 140,000 tons, down 31.
41%
from November.
The operating rate of production enterprises has increased, and the spot supply of PVC is sufficient
.
PVC social inventory increased by 39.
23% month-on-month last week and decreased by 12.
31% year-on-year, indicating insufficient
market demand.
Downstream maintenance just need to purchase
.
Far futures source procurement is not active, and the psychology of high price resistance is enhanced
.
The domestic calcium carbide market stopped falling and stabilized, the market supply was in the stage of gradual consumption, and the downstream purchasing manufacturers increased their demand with the end of maintenance and the increase of load
.
These factors support the price of PVC
.
At present, PVC fundamentals are weak, but it remains to be seen
whether the situation in the Middle East will ferment further.
Operationally, it is recommended that investors trade in
ranges.