Weak fundamentals in the aluminum market Aluminum prices are repeated in the short term

Macro: Domestically, Mao Shengyong, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from the perspective of the economy as a whole, the current economic growth target of about 6.
5% for the
whole year has the conditions, ability and confidence to complete.
Internationally, the US Federal Reserve said that the US inflation level has remained near the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve in the past year, and the continued gradual interest rate hike is in line with the current situation
of economic development.

In terms of the market, aluminum prices are sluggish, traders are less motivated to enter the market, the current price is at a recent low, downstream into the market stock, but it is understood that the "silver ten" peak season market demand is far less than expected, mostly manifested as just need to stock
.
In East China, the market lacked good news to boost, the cost side appeared downward and the dollar rose under the pressure, aluminum prices rose first and then fell during the week, giving up all the gains, overall, the center of gravity shifted
.
The supply of aluminum ingots in South China is abundant, and the holders maintain normal shipments in the early stage, but as the price continues to fall, the price sentiment appears, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand
.
In terms of aluminum rods, processing fees remained low, aluminum rod factories shrank profits, and production enthusiasm decreased
.

Inventory, the recent trend of London aluminum inventory maintained an upward trend, the latest inventory during the week reported 1066725 metric tons, a total of 133225 metric tons of increased inventory, an increase of about 14.
3%; The total stock of aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 820675 tons, down 22,001 tons, or about 2.
6%,
from last week.
Shanghai 354,000 tons, Wuxi 673,000 tons, Hangzhou 97,000 tons, Gongyi 107,000 tons, Nanhai 250,000 tons, Tianjin 54,000 tons, Linyi 24,000 tons, Chongqing 24,000 tons, consumption of aluminum ingot stocks totaled 1.
583 million tons, down 30,000 tons
from last week.

Aluminum market dynamics:

1.
China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in September was 2.
79 million tons, up 7.
1% year-on-year; Primary aluminum production from January to September was 25 million mt, up 4.
2%
from a year earlier.

2.
According to a report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global primary aluminum market supply shortage of 643,000 tons
from January to August 2018.

Future market outlook, recently Lun aluminum low operation, the overall fluctuation range of 2008-2060 US dollars, lack of good news to boost, and macroeconomic uncertainty are bearish aluminum price trend, short-term low volatility market continues, 2000 mark still has the possibility of breaking, but the deep fall space is not large, it is expected that next week Lun aluminum overall fluctuation range of 1960-2070 US dollars
。 Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate and fall during the week, the macro atmosphere has not yet warmed up, alumina prices have fallen continuously to form a negative for aluminum prices, and demand is less than expected, aluminum prices may be difficult to get rid of the volatile market, Shanghai aluminum short-term or repeated test 14,000 mark, but there is still a possibility of falling below, short-term market or repeated, next week Shanghai aluminum overall fluctuation range of 13900-14400
.