Weak fundamentals are likely to continue PVC short-term supply and demand coexist

The easing of supply contradictions will precede the easing of demand contradictions, and the fundamental bearishness will gradually strengthen.

First of all, the obstacles to resumption of work caused by personnel epidemic prevention will last longer than the recovery time of transportation
.
Secondly, affected by the local government's regulations on the resumption of work in the construction industry, the restrictions on the resumption of work of PVC terminals will be extended to April
.
Third, the downstream operation is extremely low, and the stock will be used for a longer period of time, and it is difficult for the downstream centralized replenishment to appear
.
Therefore, in the case of passive limited demand and the recovery of mid-upstream supply capacity, top-down price reduction pressure is huge
.

Macro stimulus is expected to be driven
by a bullish game.
After the outbreak of the epidemic, domestic liquidity has clearly shown a loose trend, and the policy strength of macro-adjustment is increasing
.
The capital is now loose and the LPR is expected to decline on February 20; More than 10 cities across the country have introduced support policies for real estate enterprises, and the voice of "rescue of the market" has been frear
.
Active fiscal policies and policies to ease financing for real estate companies are both emotionally stimulating the market to go long and sentiment is high
.

The weakness of fundamentals (high probability to last until March-April) and the game of macro bullish expectations will make PVC prices swing back and forth in the stage
.
Through the hypothesis of cost change, it is expected that the extreme fluctuation range of PVC futures is 6000~6600, and the fluctuation range of 6150~6400 with a high probability of repeated operation is 6150~
6400.