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Last week, aluminum prices first fell and then rose, once touched a low of 18230 yuan / ton, on Friday Yunnan suddenly reported that an aluminum plant due to the accident to reduce production news, about 300,000 tons of production capacity are all shut down, it is expected to be difficult to recover in the short term, the specific shutdown time still needs to be further followed
.
On the supply side, the interference of production restriction policy is still there, from late August to early September, Xinjiang, Guangxi and Yunnan have successively introduced policies to reduce electrolytic aluminum production, Guangxi further increased in mid-September, Guizhou encouraged electrolytic aluminum enterprises to stagger peak production in mid-to-late September, Qinghai, Ningxia and Guizhou limited production in October, Yunnan Wenshan electrolytic aluminum failure, electrolytic aluminum supply or declined
.
Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangsu and other places to raise electricity prices, other provinces and cities electricity prices will also gradually rise, aluminum smelting electricity prices rise, alumina prices fall, the total cost of electrolytic aluminum falls, enterprise production is near
breakeven.
On the demand side, the bottom of real estate policy has emerged, pessimistic expectations are repaired, but real estate sales are still under pressure, and it will take time for the bottom of corporate capital to arrive; The State Council banned one-size-fits-all power cuts, coupled with more pullbacks in aluminum prices, the downstream operating rate was weak and rebounded, and the demand for electrolytic aluminum was weak
.
In terms of inventory, social stocks increased by 31,000 tons to 1.
038 million tons, aluminum supply reduced demand rose, and the inflection point of inventory may be approaching
.
On the whole, many places raised the price of trading electricity, winter is coming, thermal coal demand is good, prices are gradually stabilizing, alumina prices are falling, auxiliary material prices are rising, electrolytic aluminum costs have decreased slightly, but still strong, Yunnan Wenshan electrolytic aluminum plant failure, coupled with the decline in corporate profits, supply or decline
。 On the demand side, the real estate policy tends to be loose, but it will take time to really transform into housing data improvement, the demand improvement is weak, the pressure of electrolytic aluminum accumulation is large, and the risk of aluminum price correction is vigilant; In the medium and long term, in order to reverse the current weak situation, aluminum prices must further decline significantly, or demand must improve significantly or real estate industry data improve
.
