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Since June, the price of butadiene in Asia has risen rapidly due to the combined effects of centralized maintenance of butadiene plants in Northeast Asia and exports to North America
.
ICIS data shows that on June 11, the weekly price of CFR Northeast Asia recorded US$1,215/ton, a 13% increase from the end of May
This trend is quite different from the earlier expectations of the Chinese market players
.
Since the second quarter, the Chinese market has been shrouded in panic about the news that a large number of new production capacity has been put into production.
ICIS believes that the global price of butadiene is expected to remain stable until at least August, and that the trend of the Chinese domestic market will be weaker than that of the overseas market, and there will be more frequent fluctuations in the market
.
This global rally originated from a snowstorm in the United States in February, when refineries and petrochemical plants encountered extensive shutdowns, affecting approximately 90% of butadiene production capacity
At present, TPC's butadiene plant in Houston is still trapped by boiler problems and maintains low-load production
.
The unit's butadiene production capacity in the United States accounts for 1/4
ICIS said that although a large number of new production capacity in Asia has been launched in succession, under the pattern of tight supply in Europe and America, Asia may maintain intermittent arbitrage exports to North America, and the increase in Asian supply will not meet market expectations
.
New butadiene plants such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and LG Chem have not been put into production, but the cracking plant has been started before, and part of the carbon four has been optimized by the market and turned into butadiene into the market
On the downstream side, after the previous callback, the price of synthetic rubber has been lower than that of natural rubber.
Tire and product factories that are highly cost-sensitive are expected to adjust their formulas and use more synthetic rubbers, which will rebalance the supply and demand of the synthetic rubber market
.
After two months of dormancy, the synthetic rubber market may regain its vitality
On the whole, the new crown pneumonia epidemic is gradually under control, vaccination is widespread, and demand recovery is relatively certain.
