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Since the beginning of this year, the domestic urea market has performed well
.
According to chemical online monitoring, its mainstream price has risen from 1,860 yuan (ton price, the same below) at the beginning of the year to the current 2,760 yuan, a record high with an increase of 48%
Regarding the reasons for the new high of urea prices, industry insiders believe that the multiple effects of foreign epidemics, increased exports and depreciation of the dollar have allowed the urea market to get rid of the shackles of traditional supply and demand and achieve a substantial increase
.
At the beginning of the year, the urea market showed a trend of rising against the trend in the off-season due to the impact of transportation stimulating the purchase of fertilizer in the market
.
Just after the Spring Festival, the market continued to rise due to demand.
From the perspective of supply, in the first half of the year, the new urea installations of Jiujiang Xinlianxin 520,000 tons/year, Yunnan Xiangfeng 500,000 tons/year, and Hubei Sanning 800,000 tons/year urea were put into operation, but compared with the current total of more than 70 million tons.
In terms of production capacity and the capacity of more than 10 million tons of long-term parking, it can be described as a drop in the bucket, and the impact is limited
.
In the first half of the year, except for the low operating rate of the domestic urea plants in Inner Mongolia affected by the "dual energy consumption" and device failures, the plants in other regions were basically operating normally, and the output was also at the highest level in the same period in the past three years
From the perspective of exports, since this year, the domestic urea export volume has been at a high level in the past three years, and is significantly higher than the level of the previous two years
.
According to customs statistics, domestic urea exports from January to May this year were 1.
From the perspective of demand, after the Spring Festival, the demand for fertilizer for spring farming gradually started from south to north
.
Due to the high price of urea this year, there are relatively large amounts of alternatives, small nitrogen fertilizers and compound fertilizers
It is worth noting that in response to the high price of urea, at the end of June, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation sent a joint research team to Henan and Hebei provinces to conduct special investigations
.
In the next step, we will work with relevant departments to continue to pay close attention to the market dynamics of urea and other agricultural materials, strengthen market supervision, and resolutely crack down on hoarding, driving up prices, fabricating and disseminating information on price increases, etc.
At present, the benefits of raw materials, exports, and production restrictions have gradually faded, and the price of urea has risen to a high level, and the market's motivation to continue to rise is obviously insufficient
.
However, affected by factors such as cost and inflation, coupled with the country's macro-control measures, it is expected that the urea market will remain high
