Upstream fundamentals performed better, and the PVC market stopped falling and rebounded

The current exchange rate of calcium carbide PVC East China market is 6430 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 30 yuan from November 14; The market price of ethylene PVC in East China was stable at about
7,000 yuan for one consecutive week.

Recently, PVC equipment has been overhauled, the supply of goods is expected to decrease, and the downstream demand is good, which is expected to drive the market upward
.

The data shows that the maintenance equipment of Dezhou Shihua 500,000 tons/year, Henan Liancheng 300,000 tons/year, and Lutai Chemical's 360,000 tons/year has not fully resumed work; Shanxi Xiangkuang Mining Group Ruiheng Chemical 200,000 tons/year plant due to fault maintenance; Shandong Xinfa 350,000 tons/year plant partial maintenance
.
"The decrease in market supply is expected to drive prices to stabilize and improve
.
" Shi Lei said
.

From the perspective of demand, downstream procurement willingness is strong
.
"Among the 10 tube profiles, rolled film and granulation companies we recently investigated, 1 purchased a volume that increased from October, 3 fell slightly, and 6 basically maintained just purchases
.
At present, most of the raw material inventory of enterprises is maintained within 2 weeks, and even some raw material inventory can only be maintained for a few days
.
Some enterprises have already begun to prepare for replenishment work
.
Overall, in the absence of obvious accumulation of inventory, short-term PVC market prices do not rule out the possibility
of a small rebound.
Yang Qi, senior energy analyst at the Orient Derivatives Research Institute, said
.

Recently, PVC futures ushered in a long-lost mid-Yang line, which brought some support
to the spot market.
On November 14, PVC futures contract 1901 opened at 6275 yuan and closed at 6355 yuan, an increase of 1.
3%.

On November 22, the PVC1901 contract opened at 6,400 yuan, and the intraday rose by 6,420 yuan
.

"On November 21, international oil prices rebounded, and WTI crude oil rose by $1.
2/barrel to $54.
63/barrel; Brent crude rose $0.
95/b to $63.
48/barrel, positive for PVC market gains
.
In addition, on November 21, the price of CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia PVC main ports increased by $10 from last week to $860; The price of CFR India's main port rose by $5 to $910, which also supported the upward price in the domestic market
.
Yang Feng said
.

In addition, as the November delivery month approaches, most PVC futures traders begin to close their positions and then exit the market, and those who buy futures contracts can offset them with sales before the expiration of the delivery month, and the contradiction between replenishment demand and low inventory is more prominent
.
The willingness to replenish stocks has increased, which is positive for the upward movement of futures
.

"Last week, some calcium carbide manufacturers such as Shaanxi Beiyuan were overhauled, and the market supply was reduced
.
With the increase in downstream procurement and the decrease in corporate inventory, it is expected that the calcium carbide market will come out of the consolidation market at the end of the month and usher in a wave of rebound
.
Longzhong Information calcium carbide analyst Zhang Zhongying analyzed
.

Zhang Zhongying said that in the early stage, supported by high profits, the overall operating rate of calcium carbide enterprises was high
.
Subsequently, downstream PVC enterprises concentrated on maintenance, and the procurement of calcium carbide declined
.
In addition, calcium carbide is a flammable and explosive product, which cannot be stored for a long time, so it is easy to appear "pressing" phenomenon, and the inventory of manufacturers is mostly at a high level, and the market has been weak
.
However, in the later stage, with the gradual recovery of PVC manufacturers for centralized maintenance, the phenomenon of "pressing truck" was alleviated, and calcium carbide inventory entered the consumption process, and the consumption cycle was estimated to extend to the end of November to the beginning of
December.
Since the current calcium carbide price is basically the cost price, some small calcium carbide furnaces have stopped production, and the supply of goods has decreased, accelerating the consumption of calcium carbide in some areas, and it is expected that calcium carbide prices will rebound
at the end of month or early December.

In addition, calcium carbide is an energy-intensive industry
.
Electrolysis of alkali production consumes energy, and polymerized PVC also consumes energy, so many enterprises have built their own power plants to ease production costs
.
Recently, the collection of cross-subsidy for captive power plants has gradually been rolled out in an all-round way, and the cost of production enterprises will increase
.
The rise of raw materials has also brought benefits to the PVC market
.