Under the change of supply and demand pattern, aluminum prices in the future market are still optimistic

On Thursday, the main 2110 contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated downward, with the highest 20270 yuan / ton, the lowest 19900 yuan / ton, and the close of 19955 yuan / ton, down 1.
68% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME aluminum fluctuated to the downside, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2547 US dollars / ton, down 0.
59%
from the previous trading day.

Market focus: (1) The minutes of the Fed's July meeting show that the Fed may reach the threshold
of tapering bond purchases this year.
Most participants noted that it might be appropriate to start slowing the pace of asset purchases this year if the economy develops as they expect, adding that the economy has hit its inflation target and is "close to satisfied"
with the progress of job growth.
(2) As of August 19, according to Mysteel statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 744,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from this Monday (16th), and 750,000 tons
in the same period last year.
(3) According to the latest report of the World Bureau of Metal Statistics: the global aluminum market supply shortage from January to June 2021 was 1.
021 million tons
.

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 20060-20100 yuan / ton, the average price was 20080 yuan / ton, down 260 yuan
daily.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders first raised the price and later the price fell and turned to adjust the price of shipments, the receiver actively purchased in the morning, the subsequent bearish demand weakened, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was general, and the transaction activity was cold
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 91,541 tons, a daily decrease of 473 tons; LME stocks were 1,309,700 tonnes, down 5,425 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 2109 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 96078 lots, minus 22422 lots per day, short positions of 96905 lots, minus 22052 lots per day, net long positions of 827 lots, daily minus 186 lots
.
Both long and short and net long are reduced
.

Judgment: Fed minutes hinted at Fed officials at the July meeting that they could slow the pace of monthly bond purchases by the end of the year, adding that the economy had reached its inflation target and was "close to satisfied"
with progress in job growth.
Pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ended August 14 and the number of
renewed jobless claims in the United States for the week ended August 7.
At present, the fundamentals of the aluminum market are still strong, the supply-side disturbance has not subsided, the scope of power rationing in the southern region has expanded, and the energy consumption indicators of some provinces and cities in the first half of the year are not up to standard, and the limited output of smelters is difficult to release
for a while.
In addition, the latest data shows that the aluminum market continues to destock, superimposed on the "gold nine silver ten" consumption season is coming, processing enterprises have increased the demand for replenishment, and under the change of supply and demand pattern, the future market aluminum prices are still optimistic
.