Under the background of demand recovery and energy transition, the future of global natural gas development can be expected

According to World Energy News, Brazil's natural gas output to the market in June increased by 4.
5% year-on-year and 1.
7% month-on-month, reaching 58 million cubic meters per day
.
With the large-scale vaccination of the global new crown vaccine, the world's major economies continue to recover, and energy demand has improved significantly

Natural gas prices rise to multi-year highs

In the first half of 2021, WTI crude oil futures prices have increased by 51% from the beginning of the year, and Brent crude oil futures prices have increased by 45%, both setting the highest half-year increase since 2009
.
While the overall recovery of the oil and gas market, as the EU carbon emission rights futures price rises to more than 50 euros/ton, and China's carbon emission rights trading market launched online trading on July 16, the global "gas to coal" process has been further promoted , Natural gas prices have also risen to multi-year highs

The latest report released by the International Energy Agency predicts that the average price of European benchmark natural gas this year will be US$9.
5 per million British thermal units, the highest level since 2013; while the average price of spot LNG in Asia will reach US$11 per million British thermal units.
Units, the highest level since 2014

Supporting the high price of natural gas is the strong rise in demand
.
Although the global natural gas demand fell by 1.
9% in 2020, according to the International Energy Agency's "Natural Gas Analysis and Outlook 2021-2024" report (referred to as the "Report") released on July 8th, global natural gas demand will rebound by 3.
6% in 2021

　　In fact, the importance of natural gas to the energy transition is undoubted.
It can not only play an important role in solving the problems of wind power, photovoltaic power generation intermittent and instability, but also play a role as a bridge in the energy transition

　　The Middle East will lead the supply growth

　　Although the demand for natural gas will grow rapidly in the future driven by the continuous recovery of the global economy and the global implementation of the low-carbon strategy, the risk of tight market structure will not increase as a result
.
The market generally believes that conventional projects that have been approved or are under development can basically meet most of the new demands

　　In terms of the distribution of natural gas supply, the Middle East, dominated by countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran, will become the region with the largest increase in natural gas supply in the world
.
The "Report" shows that the additional supply of natural gas in the future will almost entirely come from large conventional assets that have been developed, mainly in the Middle East and Russia

　　In fact, as a major natural gas producer in the Middle East, Qatar's LNG exports have maintained strong resilience even in 2020, which is severely affected by the epidemic - it has continued to rank first in the global export rankings
.
This year, Qatar has taken a number of measures to expand its market share

　　Russia and the United States will also become important supply forces to meet the new demand
.
Russian Prime Minister Mishustin approved a long-term development plan for LNG in March.
It is estimated that by 2035, Russia’s LNG production capacity will be tripled from the current level to 140 million tons per year, occupying a large share of the global LNG market.
20%
.
GlobalData's data shows that Russia will become the region with the second highest growth in natural gas processing capacity in the world, and will add 453 million cubic meters of processing capacity by 2025
.
Among them, the Ust-Luga integrated natural gas facility in the Leningrad region will become the most productive natural gas processing plant in the region (it is expected that the natural gas processing capacity will reach 122 million cubic meters)
.
In the United States, new investment in shale gas production will also be in place to support LNG export capacity
.
The "Report" believes that the United States will account for the vast majority of new LNG production capacity in the next three years
.
According to GlobalData data, by 2025, North America will rank third in the global natural gas processing capacity growth list with 351 million cubic meters of new natural gas processing capacity
.

　　Supply will transition to low carbon

　　Under the goal of net zero emissions, only a reduction in the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions across the entire value chain can support the sustainable development of natural gas in the future
.
The carbon neutral LNG obtained through carbon offset, as a product of the new idea of ​​green recovery, has become an important way out for the development of natural gas
.
Recently, more and more oil and gas companies have joined carbon-neutral LNG transactions
.
Sempra Energy Corporation of the United States announced on July 15 that it has signed a contract to supply carbon neutral LNG with bp.
The first batch of carbon neutral LNG arrived on July 16.
All carbon dioxide and methane emissions related to the production of this batch of LNG will pass.
Carbon credits generated by a bp afforestation project in Mexico are offset; Shell and PetroChina recently signed the world's first carbon-neutral LNG fixed-term contract with a five-year agreement
.

　　In addition, the development of carbon management solutions to minimize emissions from combustion is another way for natural gas to transition to low carbon
.
The "Report" also believes that from the perspective of time and cost, reducing methane emissions is an effective way to reduce carbon footprint
.
The International Energy Agency's methane tracker analysis shows that up to 40% of methane emissions can be avoided without paying a net cost
.

　　Many oil and gas companies also recognize the importance of reducing combustion and methane emissions
.
ExxonMobil has proposed internal rules to strengthen the supervision of methane, and in the "Energy and Carbon Emissions Summary" released in December 2020, it has been determined that by 2025, methane emission intensity will be reduced by 40% to 50% and combustion emission intensity Reduce the target of 35%~45%
.
Total is also committed to reducing methane emissions.
In 2017, it successfully achieved the goal of reducing associated gas combustion by 80%, and pledged to completely eliminate associated gas combustion in operating facilities by 2030
.
Chevron plans to reduce methane intensity by 50% and combustion intensity by 65% ​​by 2028 compared with 2016, and achieve unconventional combustion by 2030
.
(Reporter Ma Rui)

　　Transfer from: China Petroleum News