Uncertainty in production areas strengthened, rubber futures prices closed higher

News: 1.
Four departments: The subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 20%
from 2020.
2.
Shandong's three-year battle against pollution has come to a successful end, and the "14th Five-Year Plan" will continue to increase efforts
.
3.
According to Longzhong Information, the operating rate of domestic semi-steel tire manufacturers last week was 49.
35%, down 1.
53% month-on-month and 10.
07% year-on-year; The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 52.
18%, down 1.
05% month-on-month and 6.
89%
year-on-year.
4.
China has become Malaysia's largest trading partner for the 11th consecutive year, with a significant increase in imports and exports of gloves and masks
.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 19 years state-owned full latex reported 13550 (+100) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 13300 (+150) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 tobacco film reported 18900 (+100) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1620 (+60) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 January cargo reported 1620 (+60) US dollars / ton
.
Thailand Hat Yai raw material market field glue 50 (+1.
5) baht/kg; Cup gum 38.
1 (+1.
1) baht/kg
.
Hainan state-owned glue into the whole dairy plant to produce whole milk 12500 (+0) yuan / ton, into the concentrated milk factory to produce concentrated milk 13200 (+0) yuan / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: North China Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price 11100 (-200) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 10200 (-300) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 161270 tons, + 700 tons; NR warehouse receipt 46,892 tons, +0 tons
.
Main positions: RU2105 top 20 long positions 95577, +726; short positions 139740, +1348; long and short increased, net short increased
.

Summary: At present, the domestic production areas have entered the period of suspension, although Thailand is still in the peak production period, but the epidemic in Thailand continues to spread, the lockdown measures continue to tighten, coupled with the tight ship space, the freight rate is high, and the output and export volume are expected to be reduced; In addition, heavy rainfall is expected in southern Thailand recently, and if it continues, it will have an impact on rubber tapping operations, thereby suppressing the output of
new rubber.
In terms of inventory, as of the end of December, domestic dark rubber stocks stopped falling slightly week-on-week, significantly higher than the same period last year; Light-colored rubber inventories rose slightly week-on-week, still significantly lower than the same period last year; Futures inventories continue to accumulate, but at a slower
pace.
On the demand side, Shandong's environmental protection production restrictions have been lifted, and tire starts are expected to rise month-on-month, but in terms of exports, due to tight containers and rising sea freight, it is difficult to deliver export orders, and the short-term tire start increase may be relatively limited
.
On the market, the RU2105 contract focuses on whether the futures price can stand firm at 14400 in the short term, and if it successfully breaks through, it is expected to further test 14850; The NR2103 contract is recommended to trade
in the 10550-10900 range for short term.