Trade situation causes market worries Shanghai aluminum prices are weak

In terms of external trading, the market is hopeful for a Sino-US trade deal, and optimism supports aluminum prices; However, the sharp plunge in crude oil prices and the rise of the US dollar index inhibited the upside of aluminum prices, and the price of aluminum fell
under pressure.
The price trend of aluminum in the week maintained a trend of first rising and then
falling.
The market mainly focuses on the $1700 support level
.

In terms of the market, the market expects that further economic stimulus measures will be introduced in China to promote the recovery of investor sentiment, and spot aluminum prices have risen
.
Coming to the end of June, the downstream consumption season has come to an end, and the pressure on aluminum terminal demand has inhibited the rebound of aluminum prices, and spot aluminum prices have fallen
.
The weekly average quotation of Yangtze spot AOO aluminum ingots was 14260 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan / ton per week, and the average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum per ton was reported at 14230 yuan in the previous week, up 30 yuan / ton, up 0.
2%
month-on-month.

In terms of inventory, the trend of aluminum inventory maintained a downward trend during the week, and the latest inventory was reported 1155025 metric tons, reducing the inventory by a total of 53,875 metric tons, a decrease of about 4.
5%; The total weekly aluminum stock of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 507353 tons, down 31,849 tons, or about 5.
9%,
from last week.

Macro information, domestically, financial data from industrial enterprises released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to April 2019, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country fell by 3.
4% year-on-year, which was roughly the same
as from January to March.
Internationally, Turkey issued an official statement saying it would halve tariffs on some U.
S.
imports as a response
to U.
S.
tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from Turkey.

Aluminum market dynamics:

1.
From January to April 2019, the global primary aluminum production was about 20.
909 million tons, and China's output was 11.
83 million tons, accounting for 57%
of the world's total output.

2.
Bahrain Aluminum Plant's latest 6 series electrolyzer has been put into production, so that its total primary aluminum production capacity has reached 1.
5 million tons / year, climbing the top of the world's primary aluminum enterprise Taishan and becoming the world's largest single primary aluminum plant
.

Looking forward to the future market, the tense trade situation has caused concerns about the slowdown in market demand, coupled with the end of the downstream consumption season, the pressure on aluminum terminal demand has inhibited the rebound of aluminum prices, and the upward trend of spot aluminum prices is weak
.
At present, the macro of the market is bearish, but based on the good domestic destocking to provide support for aluminum prices, it is expected that the trend of spot aluminum prices will be difficult to change
next week.